781
FXUS64 KJAN 270526 AAC
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1226 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AREAWIDE BY MORNING.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A LARGE CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND
THE CLOSED LOW HAS HELPED SHIFT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL EAST OF
MISSISSIPPI BUT THERE WILL REMAIN LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA AND OVER OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES MONDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW SHIFTS SLOWLY TO THE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY EVENING. CONSIDERING THE
WIDESPREAD AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT FELL ACROSS THE CWA, MODELS ARE
SHOWING DECENT PROBABILITIES OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR
WHOLE CWA WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS OUR SOUTH. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BY MORNING IF THE DENSE FOG BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.
THE CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN NORMAL ACROSS OUR NORTH MONDAY WHILE OUR SOUTH HEATS
BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL. WITH DRY WEATHER AND LESS CLOUD COVER MONDAY
NIGHT, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT CLOSE NORMAL BY TUESDAY
MORNING. /22/
TUESDAY-FRIDAY:
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
A POTENT COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION. SHOWERS WITH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE. BEST RAIN CHANCES (50-85%
AREAWIDE WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE TO RANGE BETWEEN 15-45% THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PUSHING
REMNANTS OF THE PREVIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LINGERING RAINFALL OUT
OF THE REGION. POST BOUNDARY PASSAGE, RIDGING PATTERN WILL SET UP
AND ESTABLISH NORTHWEST FLOW. AS A RESULT, DRIER AIR AND
TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE THE MID/UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTH.
LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE FIRST FROST OF THE
SEASON AS LOWS DROP TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR EARLY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. TAKE PRECAUTION AHEAD OF THE POTENTIAL FROST
TO ENSURE SENSITIVE VEGETATION IS PROTECTED. /SW/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
THANKS TO A MIX OF MAINLY LOW STRATUS AND FOG, MVFR TO LIFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL BE THE NORM OVERNIGHT AT AREA TAF SITES AS
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY EXIT EAST INTO ALABAMA.
WHILE THE FOG WILL BEGIN ERODING AFTER SUNRISE, LOW STRATUS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. THIS'LL RESULT
IN A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CATEGORIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL BECOME
MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY WHILE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 5-8
KNOTS. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 72 55 74 48 / 10 10 20 80
MERIDIAN 72 53 70 48 / 20 10 10 70
VICKSBURG 72 55 76 48 / 0 0 30 70
HATTIESBURG 78 55 78 52 / 0 0 0 70
NATCHEZ 74 55 78 47 / 0 0 20 70
GREENVILLE 67 55 70 47 / 10 0 40 70
GREENWOOD 69 55 72 47 / 10 10 30 80
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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