265
FXUS64 KJAN 271927
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
227 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN.
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT.
- COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. ALTHOUGH THE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED OVER OUR NORTHEAST ZONES, THERE WILL REMAIN
A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE CLOSED LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND OPENS UP OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. ABOUT THE TIME THE CLOUDS TRY TO THIN OUT FROM THE DEPARTING
LOW TUESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL HELP INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SOUTHEAST TO THE NATCHEZ
TRACE BY TUESDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE
SUPPORTING. OVERALL, THE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR CWA
DON'T LOOK IMPRESSIVE A STRONG STORMS OR TWO OVER OUR SOUTHWEST IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS ON AVERAGE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN THE NORTH TO LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH. THEREFORE, NO RUNOFF ISSUES
ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
TUESDAY WILL BE HELD BELOW NORMAL WHILE ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, MORNING LOWS WILL BE
BACK BELOW NORMAL; IN THE 40S AND WITH A BREEZY WEST WIND MAKING IT
FEEL REALLY CHILLY. /22/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE BIG STORY AS WE GO LATER INTO
THE WEEK WILL BE THE ONSET OF A MUCH COOLER WEATHER PATTERN THAT IS
MORE TYPICAL OF THE FALL SEASON.
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD ADVECTION PATTERN
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR RAW
CONDITIONS. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE
COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR COMPROMISED TREES AND HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES, AND HAVE THEREFORE BEGUN TO MESSAGE FOR A LIMITED WIND
THREAT, MAINLY OVER WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTEWORTHY AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RISE
THROUGH THE 50S DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION AND CONSIDERABLE
STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING
IF A FEW LOCATIONS FAIL TO CLIMB ABOVE 50...A PRETTY REMARKABLE FEAT
FOR WHAT HAS BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM FALL SEASON TO THIS POINT. THE
WIND WILL NOT RELAX A WHOLE LOT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND WITH CONTINUED
CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH.
FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, THURSDAY COULD PROVE TO BE ANOTHER CHILLY
DAY, ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE STRATUS IS
MORE LIKELY TO LINGER MORE, BUT THE WIND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG WITH
THE LOW DEPARTING QUICKLY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING.
OTHERWISE, THE LONGER RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE MOSTLY INFLUENCED BY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW RESULTING IN DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS. WE'LL BE MONITORING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FROST IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS OF NORTHEAST
TO EAST CENTRAL MS. /EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
IFR/MVFR CIGS WL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THIS AFTN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES. MVFR/VFR CIGS WL PREVAIL CNTRL AND SOUTH UNTIL AFTER
00Z. AFTER 00Z MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL CNTRL AND
SOUTH AFTER 09Z WHEN CIGS COULD LOWER TO IFR AND VSBYS LOWER TO
LIFR. IN THE NORTH IFR/MVFR CIGS WL CONTINUE UNTIL THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD WHERE CONDITIONS WL BEGIN IMPROVING. VFR CONDITIONS WL
BE PSBL CNTRL AND SOUTH JUST BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 55 75 48 59 / 0 20 90 40
MERIDIAN 53 71 48 60 / 0 10 90 40
VICKSBURG 55 75 49 59 / 0 50 80 30
HATTIESBURG 56 78 52 65 / 0 0 90 10
NATCHEZ 55 80 49 61 / 0 30 80 10
GREENVILLE 55 68 48 56 / 0 70 80 60
GREENWOOD 55 71 47 56 / 10 60 90 60
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/EC/22
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