423
FXUS64 KJAN 280449 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1149 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN.
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT.
- COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWED THE CIRCULATION AROUND A CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER WESTERN
TENNESSEE AND WESTERN KENTUCKY. ALTHOUGH THE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED OVER OUR NORTHEAST ZONES, THERE WILL REMAIN
A FEW SPRINKLES AROUND UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE CLOSED LOW MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND OPENS UP OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. ABOUT THE TIME THE CLOUDS TRY TO THIN OUT FROM THE DEPARTING
LOW TUESDAY MORNING, ANOTHER CLOSED LOW DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL HELP INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SOUTHEAST TO THE NATCHEZ
TRACE BY TUESDAY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE
SUPPORTING. OVERALL, THE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR CWA
DON'T LOOK IMPRESSIVE A STRONG STORMS OR TWO OVER OUR SOUTHWEST IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. RAINFALL TOTALS ON AVERAGE
SHOULD RANGE FROM THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN THE NORTH TO LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH ACROSS THE SOUTH. THEREFORE, NO RUNOFF ISSUES
ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH
TUESDAY WILL BE HELD BELOW NORMAL WHILE ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY, MORNING LOWS WILL BE
BACK BELOW NORMAL; IN THE 40S AND WITH A BREEZY WEST WIND MAKING IT
FEEL REALLY CHILLY. /22/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE BIG STORY AS WE GO LATER INTO
THE WEEK WILL BE THE ONSET OF A MUCH COOLER WEATHER PATTERN THAT IS
MORE TYPICAL OF THE FALL SEASON.
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A STRONG COLD ADVECTION PATTERN
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR RAW
CONDITIONS. GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE
COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR COMPROMISED TREES AND HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES, AND HAVE THEREFORE BEGUN TO MESSAGE FOR A LIMITED WIND
THREAT, MAINLY OVER WESTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTEWORTHY AS THEY STRUGGLE TO RISE
THROUGH THE 50S DUE TO THE COLD ADVECTION AND CONSIDERABLE
STRATOCUMULUS AND LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING
IF A FEW LOCATIONS FAIL TO CLIMB ABOVE 50...A PRETTY REMARKABLE FEAT
FOR WHAT HAS BEEN AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM FALL SEASON TO THIS POINT. THE
WIND WILL NOT RELAX A WHOLE LOT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND WITH CONTINUED
CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH.
FOR THURSDAY AND BEYOND, THURSDAY COULD PROVE TO BE ANOTHER CHILLY
DAY, ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE STRATUS IS
MORE LIKELY TO LINGER MORE, BUT THE WIND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG WITH
THE LOW DEPARTING QUICKLY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXING.
OTHERWISE, THE LONGER RANGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE MOSTLY INFLUENCED BY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW RESULTING IN DRY AND
SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS. WE'LL BE MONITORING THE OVERNIGHT LOWS
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FROST IN THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS OF NORTHEAST
TO EAST CENTRAL MS. /EC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
SCATTERED TO OVERCAST MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL FILL IN BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF TIME, WITH CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS BY 12Z AT
MOST SITES.IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR MOST SITES AFTER SUNRISE AS
STRATUS LIFTS AND THINS. SHRA AND A FEW TSRA WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY./OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 74 55 75 48 / 0 0 20 90
MERIDIAN 70 52 72 47 / 0 0 10 90
VICKSBURG 73 55 77 48 / 0 0 50 80
HATTIESBURG 80 55 78 52 / 0 0 10 90
NATCHEZ 74 55 80 47 / 0 0 30 80
GREENVILLE 65 55 68 48 / 0 0 80 80
GREENWOOD 67 55 70 47 / 10 10 60 100
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/EC/OAJ
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