817
FXUS64 KJAN 281441 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
941 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN.
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT.
- COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
THE FOG THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE CWA EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS
DISSIPATED. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA BUT LOW
STRATUS WAS HANGING ON IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS THAT
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TODAY. LOCAL RADARS
WERE ALREADY SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
ARKANSAS THAT WILL START MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWEST MOST ZONES
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AS THE ACTIVITY EXPANDS TO
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE BY SUNSET. UPSTREAM A
MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS DIVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH OUR CWA HELP DRIVE A STRONG COLD
FRONT TOWARDS OUR CWA BY THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
PATCHES OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND TEMPS COOL TO THE CROSS OVER TEMPS
FROM THIS AFTERNOON. BE PREPARED TO SLOW DOWN IN AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
A STEEP RIDGE TO TROUGH UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS SET UP FROM THE WEST
COAST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START THE PERIOD, WITH A 100+ KNOT
JET ANGLING FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA/ALBERTA TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH
HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP
AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. RESULTING
FLOW WILL BRING A COLD FRONT AND SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH OUR
FORECAST AREA PRIMARILY BETWEEN ABOUT 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 1 AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT, BUT DO NOT EXPECT ORGANIZED THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS FRONT. THERE IS POTENTIAL A FEW STRONGER
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED STORMS,
WITH LOW PROBABILITIES (LESS THAN 5 PERCENT) OF SPORADIC SEVERE
HAIL. WILL NOT ADVERTISE IN GRAPHICAL HAZARD OUTLOOKS.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND FLOW
AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXED AND
SATURATED. SPRINKLY SHOWERS AND MISTY TYPE CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE
INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BLENDED GUIDANCE PROBABILITIES INDICATE
GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CHANCE TO EXCEED 25 MPH SUSTAINED AND UP
TO 40 MPH GUSTS, GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. WILL
KEEP THE ADVERTISED LIMITED THREAT FOR STRONG GRADIENT WINDS AS
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT (6 TO 8 MB) WITH THIS SYSTEM RESULTS IN
WESTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE PATTERN SHOULD SEND A SEQUENCE OF QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVES OVER
THE COUNTRY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE
LOW, SO HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS AT THIS TIME.
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT (HALLOWEEN
NIGHT) HAVE A CHANCE FOR A FEW AREAS TO GET NEAR FROST THRESHOLDS IF
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR AND WINDS CAN GO CALM. SOME CONSENSUS AND BIAS
CORRECTED GUIDANCE INDICATE MORE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING.
CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE JUST YET IN GRAPHICAL
HAZARD OUTLOOKS BUT COULD BE NEEDED IN A SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
CYCLE. /NF/DC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 505 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
SCATTERED TO OVERCAST MVFR STRATUS DECK WILL FILL IN BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF TIME, WITH CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS BY 12Z AT
MOST SITES. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR MOST SITES AFTER SUNRISE AS
STRATUS LIFTS AND THINS. SHRA AND A FEW TSRA WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. TOMORROW WILL SEE GUSTY
WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES AFTER SUNRISE./OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 75 48 58 46 / 20 90 40 30
MERIDIAN 72 47 58 45 / 10 90 40 20
VICKSBURG 77 48 58 47 / 50 80 20 20
HATTIESBURG 78 51 64 47 / 10 90 10 10
NATCHEZ 80 47 61 47 / 30 80 10 10
GREENVILLE 68 48 55 45 / 80 80 60 20
GREENWOOD 70 47 56 44 / 60 100 60 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/DC/OAJ
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