972
FXUS64 KJAN 290613
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
113 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND
BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN.
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT.
- COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...
WE WILL BE IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME TODAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN
UPPER LOW. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT (AROUND 10 MB) ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY WILL RESULT IN WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
35-40 MPH. AS SUCH, A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA TODAY UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND RAIN SHOWERS TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR USHERS IN
ON THE BACK SIDE. WE MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTERLY COOL/DRY REGIME
OVERALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE NORTHEAST.
WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE WEAK MOIST RETURN FLOW, THOUGH STILL QUITE
SUPPRESSED, FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
TROUGH, WHICH WILL KEEP LOWS EVER SO SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT,
LIMITING FROST CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING. LOW POPS (15-20%) RETURN
GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20 THIS WEEKEND AS A CUT OFF LOW MEANDERS OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE GUIDANCE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK REGARDING THE TIMING OF DEPARTURE FOR THIS FEATURE,
AS STRONGER RIDGING PRESENT IN THE EURO SLOWS THIS FEATURE DOWN. IN
GENERAL THOUGH, WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO A NORTHWESTERLY COOL/DRY
PATTERN NEXT WEEK. WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE REGION,
LOWS COULD ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE MID NEXT WEEK.
/SAS/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH, BRINGING VARIABLE
REDUCTIONS IN CEILING AND/OR VISIBILITY THROUGH AROUND 29/10-12Z
WEDNESDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY MOVE BACK IN NORTHERN TAF
SITES (GWO AND GTR) WHILE LOWER PROBABILITIES (25 TO 50 PERCENT) AT
GLH AND MEI. LOW STRATUS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH SOME LIFR CEILING REDUCTIONS AT
NORTHEAST TAF SITES (GWO AND GTR) AFTER 30/00Z THURSDAY. GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS, (15 TO 20MPH SUSTAINED AND AROUND 30
TO 35MPH GUSTS) WILL CONTINUE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SWEEPING WEST
TO EAST THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY INTO THE EVENING
BUT REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.
/DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 55 48 62 39 / 30 20 0 0
MERIDIAN 56 49 62 37 / 30 10 0 0
VICKSBURG 57 48 63 41 / 10 10 0 0
HATTIESBURG 61 51 65 39 / 10 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 59 48 63 40 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 53 47 61 42 / 60 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 53 46 62 38 / 80 30 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025-
034>036-040>062.
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
SAS20/SAS20/DC
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