527
FXUS64 KJAN 291746 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1246 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE NORTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUBSIDING THIS EVENING.
- COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK, WITH
PATCHY LIGHT FROST POSSIBLE IN EAST TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE AREA, THE
NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL
MOVE SLOWLY TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS. CURRENT WIND GUSTS WERE BELOW 30MPH BUT THESE
GUSTS WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE UNTIL GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING THIS EVENING. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
GUSTS FROM OUR NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS A STINGER JET WRAPS AROUND
THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE NEARLY STACKED LOW THAT WILL BE OVER
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AT THE TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLDER
THAN NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
40S. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...
WE WILL BE IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME TODAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN
UPPER LOW. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT (AROUND 10 MB) ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY WILL RESULT IN WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS
35-40 MPH. AS SUCH, A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE CONTINUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA TODAY UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES
AND RAIN SHOWERS TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR USHERS IN
ON THE BACK SIDE. WE MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTERLY COOL/DRY REGIME
OVERALL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
DROP TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE NORTHEAST.
WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE WEAK MOIST RETURN FLOW, THOUGH STILL QUITE
SUPPRESSED, FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
TROUGH, WHICH WILL KEEP LOWS EVER SO SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT,
LIMITING FROST CHANCES SATURDAY MORNING. LOW POPS (15-20%) RETURN
GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20 THIS WEEKEND AS A CUT OFF LOW MEANDERS OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE GUIDANCE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK REGARDING THE TIMING OF DEPARTURE FOR THIS FEATURE,
AS STRONGER RIDGING PRESENT IN THE EURO SLOWS THIS FEATURE DOWN. IN
GENERAL THOUGH, WE WILL SEE A RETURN TO A NORTHWESTERLY COOL/DRY
PATTERN NEXT WEEK. WITH A SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER THE REGION,
LOWS COULD ONCE AGAIN BE ON THE COOL SIDE MID NEXT WEEK.
/SAS/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
MVFR CIGS WL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TAF SITES UNTIL IMPROVING
AFTER 15Z THU. VFR CIGS WL PREVAIL CNTRL AND SOUTH UNTIL AFTER
00Z AND THEN DROP TO MVFR. MVFR CIGS WL CONTINUE CNTRL AND SOUTH
UNTIL IMPROVING AFTER 15Z. THE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
CONTINUE PAST 00Z BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 55 47 62 40 / 30 20 0 0
MERIDIAN 56 46 62 37 / 30 10 0 0
VICKSBURG 57 48 63 40 / 10 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 61 50 66 40 / 10 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 59 47 64 40 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 53 46 61 42 / 60 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 53 45 61 38 / 80 30 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025-
034>036-040>062.
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
22/SAS20/22
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