057
FXUS64 KJAN 130027 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
627 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A WARMING TREND FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK, BRINGING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S/
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
REST OF TONIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE TO DESERT
SOUTHWEST, WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL AND
SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
CONVERGENT BOUNDARY EXISTS TO THE NORTH, WHICH COULD COALESCE SOME
FOG CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. WITH SURFACE RIDGING AND LIGHT WINDS,
COMBINED WITH SEASONABLY WARM LOWS, 4F TO 10F ABOVE (44F TO 55F),
SOME RADIATIONAL FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE SOME
AREAS OF DENSE FOG PROBS GREATER THAN 3-5 HRS IN DURATION, BUT
MOST ARE CENTERED OVER RIVER VALLEYS. HOLDING OFF MENTION IN
HAZARD GRAPHIC FOR NOW BUT CAN'T RULE OUT OUT PATCHY AREAS OF
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN LOW-LYING OR SHELTERED AREAS, SUCH AS RIVER
VALLEYS. UPDATES ARE OUT. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST WED NOV 12 2025
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. WHILE SOME PASSING
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH MAY KEEP A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
REGION, THE GENERAL EFFECT WILL BE WARM AND DRY WEATHER FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MID NOVEMBER. OVERALL TRENDS WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SHOW UPSTREAM WEATHER PATTERN WILL DIG TROUGH FARTHER
WEST THIS WEEKEND. LIFTING SHORTWAVES FROM THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
WILL THEREFORE BE DIRECTED MORE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA,
AND THE FOCUS FOR RAIN OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE DIRECTED NORTH AND WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. /NF/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CST WED NOV 12 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS, GENERALLY UNDER
10MPH, WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS CAN'T BE RULED OUT (DUE TO BR), WITH THE ONSET
JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK BETWEEN 13/09-10Z THURSDAY AND LIFTING
AROUND 13/13Z. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN ARE HEZ, HBG AND PIB, WHILE
CAN'T RULED OUT AS WELL FURTHER NORTH NEAR GTR DUE TO STALLED
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 52 76 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 48 76 48 78 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 53 77 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 51 78 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 53 78 54 79 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 52 76 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 50 76 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/NF/DC
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