954
FXUS64 KJAN 131944
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
144 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE RULE THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
THE FORECAST GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CAN BEST BE
DESCRIBED AS UNUSUALLY WARM AND DRY. THE MOST PROMINENT WEATHER
FEATURE AFFECTING OUR REGION WILL BE A WARM LONGWAVE RIDGE THAT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY. AS THIS
HAPPENS, SUBSIDENT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL TEND TO DEFLECT ANY
POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEMS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH DEPARTURES OF +10 TO
+20 DEG F EACH DAY.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE BY THE END OF
FORECAST (WED INTO THU), WHEN A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY HAVE A GREATER CHANCE OF MAKING A DENT IN THE
RIDGE. THE MAJORITY OF GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE LESS
PHASED WITH THIS TROUGH AND THEREFORE SLOWER IN BREAKING DOWN THE
RIDGE AND BRINGING IN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (E.G., > 1 INCH IN
24HR). MEANWHILE, ONLY A SMALL CLUSTER OF MEMBERS SUGGEST A MORE
PHASED AND PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. THE BOTTOM LINE HERE IS TO NOT HOLD
YOUR BREATH WAITING FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR
SO. /EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST THU NOV 13 2025
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, INDICATIVE OF A MOISTER PROFILE. AS SUCH, SOME BRIEFLY
6SM BR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND THE
WEATHER QUIET./SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 53 78 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 49 78 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 55 78 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 52 80 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 55 79 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 56 78 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 54 78 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SAS20/EC/
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