115
FXUS64 KJAN 140004 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
604 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE RULE THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
REST OF TONIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST TX, WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE ARKLATEX TO NORTHERN GULF. 850MB RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST
OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. SEASONABLY WARM LOWS WILL BE THE NORM, 7F TO 15F
ABOVE (45F TO 52F IN GOLDEN TRIANGLE TO HWY 45 WHILE 53F TO 58F
ELSEWHERE). THERE SHOULD BE EFFICIENT CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES (3F
TO 6F DEGREES) FOR SOME FOG CONCERNS AGAIN OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY
IN LOW- LYING AND SHELTERED AREAS SUCH AS RIVER VALLEYS. KEPT
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT, BUT DURATION OF HREF DENSE FOG
PROBS ARE LOWER AND LESS EXPANSIVE THAN THIS MORNING. HOLDING OFF
ANY HAZARD OUTLOOK GRAPHICS FOR NOW. UPDATES ARE OUT. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
THE FORECAST GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CAN BEST BE
DESCRIBED AS UNUSUALLY WARM AND DRY. THE MOST PROMINENT WEATHER
FEATURE AFFECTING OUR REGION WILL BE A WARM LONGWAVE RIDGE THAT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY. AS THIS
HAPPENS, SUBSIDENT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL TEND TO DEFLECT ANY
POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEMS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH DEPARTURES OF +10 TO
+20 DEG F EACH DAY.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE BY THE END OF
FORECAST (WED INTO THU), WHEN A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY HAVE A GREATER CHANCE OF MAKING A DENT IN THE
RIDGE. THE MAJORITY OF GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE LESS
PHASED WITH THIS TROUGH AND THEREFORE SLOWER IN BREAKING DOWN THE
RIDGE AND BRINGING IN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (E.G., > 1 INCH IN
24HR). MEANWHILE, ONLY A SMALL CLUSTER OF MEMBERS SUGGEST A MORE
PHASED AND PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. THE BOTTOM LINE HERE IS TO NOT HOLD
YOUR BREATH WAITING FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR
SO. /EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS, GENERALLY
UNDER 10MPH, WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR TO IFR
VSBY RESTRICTIONS CAN'T BE RULED OUT (DUE TO BR OR FG), WITH THE
ONSET JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK BETWEEN 14/09-10Z THURSDAY AND
LIFTING AROUND 14/13Z. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN ARE GTR, MEI, HBG
AND PIB AND PSBL AT HEZ. THIS IS MORE LIKELY IN LOW-LYING RIVER
VALLEYS AND AREAS OF CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 3F, WHICH
IS MORE IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST TAF SITES (GTR, MEI, PIB AND HBG).
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTERWARDS FRIDAY AFTN. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 53 78 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 49 78 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 54 78 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 53 80 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 54 79 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 56 78 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 54 78 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/EC/DC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page