316
FXUS64 KJAN 140352 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
952 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN HIGHWAY
45 AND INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDORS.
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE RULE THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 952 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL CONTINUES (IN EXCESS OF 3F
DEGREES AND SOME AREAS IN EXCESS OF 5F TO 8F DEGREES, ESPECIALLY
IN THE I-59 TO HWY 45 CORRIDORS) AND RECENT RUNS OF CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODEL SUITE (HRRR, RRFS, ETC) HAVE BECOME INCREASINGLY
MORE AGGRESSIVE IN LOWERED VISIBILITY POTENTIAL. HREF DENSE FOG
PROBS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 40 TO 70 PERCENT OVER A
LARGER AREA AND IN DURATION OF 4 TO 8 HRS IN EXCESS OF LIMITED
PROBS (10 TO 25 PERCENT) AND ELEVATED PROBS (25 TO 50 PERCENT) OF
3 TO 6 HOURS, DECIDED TO ADD PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND
HAZARD GRAPHIC. THE HWO AREA IS FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH/EAST OF A
LINE IN MS FROM BROOKSVILLE TO LOUISVILLE SOUTHWEST TO FOREST TO
MAGEE AND COLUMBIA. RECENT HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO BE MORE EXPANSIVE
AND ESPECIALLY SNAKING UP LOW-LYING RIVER VALLEYS. UPDATED HWO
GRAPHIC IS OUT AND FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. /DC/
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
REST OF TONIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTHWEST TX, WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL AND SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE ARKLATEX TO NORTHERN GULF. 850MB RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST
OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY. SEASONABLY WARM LOWS WILL BE THE NORM, 7F TO 15F
ABOVE (45F TO 52F IN GOLDEN TRIANGLE TO HWY 45 WHILE 53F TO 58F
ELSEWHERE). THERE SHOULD BE EFFICIENT CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES (3F
TO 6F DEGREES) FOR SOME FOG CONCERNS AGAIN OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY
IN LOW- LYING AND SHELTERED AREAS SUCH AS RIVER VALLEYS. KEPT
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT, BUT DURATION OF HREF DENSE FOG
PROBS ARE LOWER AND LESS EXPANSIVE THAN THIS MORNING. HOLDING OFF
ANY HAZARD OUTLOOK GRAPHICS FOR NOW. UPDATES ARE OUT. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
THE FORECAST GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CAN BEST BE
DESCRIBED AS UNUSUALLY WARM AND DRY. THE MOST PROMINENT WEATHER
FEATURE AFFECTING OUR REGION WILL BE A WARM LONGWAVE RIDGE THAT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY. AS THIS
HAPPENS, SUBSIDENT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL TEND TO DEFLECT ANY
POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEMS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH DEPARTURES OF +10 TO
+20 DEG F EACH DAY.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE BY THE END OF
FORECAST (WED INTO THU), WHEN A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY HAVE A GREATER CHANCE OF MAKING A DENT IN THE
RIDGE. THE MAJORITY OF GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE LESS
PHASED WITH THIS TROUGH AND THEREFORE SLOWER IN BREAKING DOWN THE
RIDGE AND BRINGING IN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL (E.G., > 1 INCH IN
24HR). MEANWHILE, ONLY A SMALL CLUSTER OF MEMBERS SUGGEST A MORE
PHASED AND PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. THE BOTTOM LINE HERE IS TO NOT HOLD
YOUR BREATH WAITING FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR
SO. /EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS, GENERALLY
UNDER 10MPH, WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR TO IFR
VSBY RESTRICTIONS CAN'T BE RULED OUT (DUE TO BR OR FG), WITH THE
ONSET JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK BETWEEN 14/09-10Z THURSDAY AND
LIFTING AROUND 14/13Z. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN ARE GTR, MEI, HBG
AND PIB AND PSBL AT HEZ. THIS IS MORE LIKELY IN LOW-LYING RIVER
VALLEYS AND AREAS OF CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 3F, WHICH
IS MORE IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST TAF SITES (GTR, MEI, PIB AND HBG).
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTERWARDS FRIDAY AFTN. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 53 78 53 78 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 49 78 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 54 78 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 53 80 51 80 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 54 79 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 56 78 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 54 78 55 78 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/EC/DC
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