236
FXUS64 KJAN 140846
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
246 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN HIGHWAY 45 AND
INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDORS.
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE RULE THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES MAY INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT: PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR CWA ALREADY
THIS MORNING. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER OUR SOUTHEAST
ZONES TOWARD SUNRISE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT WL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EXTENT ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE,
A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR CWA. LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAD A RIDGE ACROSS OUR CWA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS SURFACE
RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.
TOGETHER THESE FEATURES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT A DEGREE
OR TWO WARMER THAN ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80 DEGREES OVER MOST OF THE CWA. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM
OUR A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS. /22/
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY, FROM A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH, SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERY ACTIVITY. SOME MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY IN
THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BUT THE MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE SYSTEM, WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING
THE FRONT THROUGH ON FRIDAY. EITHER WAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY, DEPENDING ON THE TIMING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S, THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD./15/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST THU NOV 13 2025
VFR AND LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS, GENERALLY UNDER 10MPH, WILL
PREVAIL AT MOST SITES INTO LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, IFR TO LIFR
VSBY RESTRICTIONS CAN'T BE RULED OUT (DUE TO BR AND FG) ARE
BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE LIKELY. ONSET WILL BE JUST PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK BETWEEN 14/09-10Z FRIDAY AND LIFTING AROUND 14/13-14Z.
MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN (HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AND INCREASING DENSE
FOG PROBABILITIES) REMAIN FOCUSED AT MEI, HBG AND PIB, WHERE
VLIFR VSBY FROM DENSE FOG, AND PSBL TEMPORARILY AT JAN AND HKS AND
GTR WHILE LESS LIKELY AT HEZ. THIS IS MORE LIKELY IN LOW-LYING
RIVER VALLEYS AND AREAS OF CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 3F
DEGREES TO EVEN IN EXCESS OF 5F DEGREES, WHICH REMAINS IN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST TAF SITES (MEI, PIB AND HBG). VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTERWARDS FRIDAY AFTN. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 78 54 78 58 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 78 51 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 79 55 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 80 52 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 79 54 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 78 57 78 58 / 0 0 0 10
GREENWOOD 78 56 78 59 / 0 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/15/DC
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