862
FXUS64 KJAN 141848
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1248 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE RULE THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INTO THE ARKLAMISS
REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
THE FORECAST GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CAN BEST BE
DESCRIBED AS UNUSUALLY WARM AND DRY. THE MOST PROMINENT WEATHER
FEATURE AFFECTING OUR REGION WILL BE A WARM LONGWAVE RIDGE THAT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY. AS THIS
HAPPENS, SUBSIDENT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL TEND TO DEFLECT ANY
POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEMS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH DEPARTURES OF +10 TO
+20 DEG F EACH DAY.
LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE NEXT WEEK, GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE
LESS VARIABILITY AMONG MEMBERS AS THEY CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION
THAT WOULD PROMISE GREATER RAIN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR US GETTING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
(E.G., > 1 INCH) OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE THU-
FRI TIME FRAME, WHEN A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO FINALLY MAKE A DENT IN THE RIDGE. THIS PATTERN
COULD ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION
AND HELP FOCUS A FAIRLY LONG DURATION OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
LIFT INTO THE UPPER DELTA REGION IN OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR
LOCATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY,
LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE INDICATED AS A WEAKENING AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH.
ASIDE FROM THE RAINFALL, THIS SYSTEM COULD POSE SOME CONCERN FOR
A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK, AND WE'LL BE MONITORING FOR THAT
AS WELL. FOR NOW AT LEAST, AI/ML AND ANALOG GUIDANCE ARE BEARISH
WITH ANY SEVERE WEATHER PROBS, AND THERE IS NO FORMAL MESSAGING
BEING CONSIDERED FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. /EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH FEW CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS. PATCHY
DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG OUR SOUTHERN TIER (HBG, PIB, AND
HEZ). HEZ IS A LITTLE LESS CONFIDENT SO OPTED TO KEEP MVFR
VISIBILITY THERE, BUT LOWER VISIBILITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ANY
FOG SHOULD CLEAR BY AROUND 14Z SAT./SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 54 79 57 80 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 51 79 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 56 79 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 53 81 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 54 79 57 81 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 58 79 59 78 / 0 0 10 0
GREENWOOD 56 79 59 78 / 0 0 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/SAS20/
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