230
FXUS64 KJAN 150354 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
954 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN PINE BELT (INTERSTATE 59,
HIGHWAY 84 TO HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDORS).
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
BE THE RULE THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 954 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
HREF DENSE FOG PROBS HAVE INCREASED SOMEWHAT IN THE PINE BELT AND
HIGHWAY 84 TO INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDORS. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL
GUIDANCE, INCLUDING HRRR, RAP AND TIME-LAGGED GUIDANCE AND HREF
DENSE FOG PROBS DURATION OF SEVERAL HOURS, PROBABILITY OF DENSE
FOG IS ENOUGH TO WARRANT MENTION IN LOCAL HAZARD GRAPHIC. THESE
AREAS REMAIN IN THE CORRIDOR OF BEST CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES IN
EXCESS OF 3F TO 5F DEGREES. IN ADDITION, ADDED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IN THE HIGHWAY 84 TO 98 CORRIDORS, IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF THREE COUNTIES (MARION, LAMAR, FORREST) FROM 2AM TO 9AM.
UPDATES ARE OUT. /DC/
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 609 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TX, WITH
PERSISTENCE THE NORM IN FLOW ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
(NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE). ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM NIGHT, 8F TO 16F ABOVE (51F TO
54F EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 AND 56F TO 59F TO THE WEST OF
INTERSTATE 55 AND NORTHWEST IN THE DELTA). ANOTHER NIGHT OF EFFICIENT
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES (>3F DEGREES) MAY FAVOR PATCHY FOG,
ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING RIVER VALLEYS IN THE PINE BELT (INTERSTATE
59, HIGHWAY 84 TO 98 CORRIDORS. KEPT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT, BUT DURATION OF HREF DENSE FOG PROBS ARE LOWER IN THIS
REGION (HIGHER IN HIGHWAY 84 ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 55).
HOLDING OFF ANY HAZARD OUTLOOK GRAPHICS FOR DENSE FOG. UPDATES ARE
OUT. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
THE FORECAST GOING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CAN BEST BE
DESCRIBED AS UNUSUALLY WARM AND DRY. THE MOST PROMINENT WEATHER
FEATURE AFFECTING OUR REGION WILL BE A WARM LONGWAVE RIDGE THAT
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY. AS THIS
HAPPENS, SUBSIDENT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL TEND TO DEFLECT ANY
POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEMS TO OUR WEST AND NORTH. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH DEPARTURES OF +10 TO
+20 DEG F EACH DAY.
LOOKING AHEAD TO LATE NEXT WEEK, GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLES INDICATE
LESS VARIABILITY AMONG MEMBERS AS THEY CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION
THAT WOULD PROMISE GREATER RAIN CHANCES LATE NEXT WEEK. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR US GETTING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
(E.G., > 1 INCH) OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN THE THU-
FRI TIME FRAME, WHEN A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO FINALLY MAKE A DENT IN THE RIDGE. THIS PATTERN
COULD ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION
AND HELP FOCUS A FAIRLY LONG DURATION OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
LIFT INTO THE UPPER DELTA REGION IN OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR
LOCATIONS ROUGHLY ALONG/SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY,
LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE INDICATED AS A WEAKENING AND MORE
PROGRESSIVE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH.
ASIDE FROM THE RAINFALL, THIS SYSTEM COULD POSE SOME CONCERN FOR
A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK, AND WE'LL BE MONITORING FOR THAT
AS WELL. FOR NOW AT LEAST, AI/ML AND ANALOG GUIDANCE ARE BEARISH
WITH ANY SEVERE WEATHER PROBS, AND THERE IS NO FORMAL MESSAGING
BEING CONSIDERED FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. /EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS, GENERALLY
UNDER 10MPH, WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH ANY
CONCERNS WITH MVFR TO IFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS (DUE TO BR OR FG) AT
HBG AND PIB. ONSET TIME JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AROUND 14/11-12Z
SATURDAY AND LIFTING AROUND 14/13Z. THIS IS MORE LIKELY IN LOW-
LYING RIVER VALLEYS AND AREAS OF CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES GREATER
THAN 3F, WHICH IS MORE IN SOUTHEAST TAF SITES (MEI, PIB AND HBG).
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTERWARDS SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A
NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS AFTER
15/14-16Z SATURDAY (SUSTAINED UP TO 15MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 20 TO
25MPH). /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 78 54 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 78 51 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 79 56 79 58 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 80 53 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 80 54 79 57 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 79 58 79 59 / 0 0 0 10
GREENWOOD 78 56 79 59 / 0 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MSZ072>074.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/EC/DC
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