674
FXUS64 KJAN 150823
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
223 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING IN PINE BELT
(INTERSTATE 59, HIGHWAY 84 TO HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDORS).
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
CONTINUING TO MONITOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE PINE BELT WHERE A "DENSE FOG ADVISORY" IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM. VISIBILITY COULD BE REDUCED TO ONE QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS WHERE DENSE FOG IS OBSERVED. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS
WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO ERODE AFTER SUNRISE AS HEATING ENSUES.
QUIET WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WILL BE THE NORM ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AN AIRMASS CHANGE OR EVEN RAIN
CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT.
CURRENTLY, BETTER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NATION'S MID-SECTION LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO MOVE EAST INTO AND THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY FRIDAY, THUS BRINGING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA. WHILE THIS IS AT THE END OF THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, MODELS DO SHOW ADEQUATE WIND SHEAR AND
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS LACKING. STILL,
THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS AT
LEAST SOME LOW END SEVERE THREAT COULD ACCOMPANY IT. /19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS, GENERALLY
UNDER 10MPH, WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH ANY
CONCERNS WITH IFR TO LIFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS (DUE TO BR OR DENSE
FG) AT HBG AND PIB. ONSET TIME JUST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AROUND
15/11-12Z SATURDAY AND LIFTING AROUND 15/13Z. THIS IS MORE LIKELY
IN LOW-LYING RIVER VALLEYS AND AREAS OF CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES
GREATER THAN 3F, WHICH IS MORE IN SOUTHEAST TAF SITES (TEMPORARILY
NEAR MEI AROUND DAYBREAK WHILE MORE LIKELY AT PIB AND HBG). VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTERWARDS SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A
NOTICEABLE UPTICK IN GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS AFTER
15/14-16Z SATURDAY (SUSTAINED UP TO 15MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 20 TO
25MPH) AND WINDING DOWN AROUND 15/23Z SATURDAY THROUGH 16/01Z
SUNDAY. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 79 58 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 79 56 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 79 58 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 81 56 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 80 57 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 79 59 76 54 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 80 59 78 52 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ072>074.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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