958
FXUS64 KJAN 151752
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1152 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK:
UPPER RIDGING THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL KEEP WEATHER QUIET AND
PROMOTE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES (JAN
NORMAL HIGH IS 68 FOR REFERENCE) WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
EVEN MID 80S BY MID WEEK. A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO
NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT
LOWS MONDAY MORNING IN GTR (MID 40S). THEREAFTER, LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S. OUR NEXT RAINMAKER LOOKS TO BE
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
SEVERITY OF STORMS WITH SOME LIMITATIONS, BUT SHEAR AND FORCING
APPEARS AMPLE. THE QUESTION WILL BE INSTABILITY, WHICH THE TIMING
NEAR DIURNAL MIN DOES NOT FAVOR ROBUST INSTABILITY. THE LIKELIEST
SCENARIO AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE A FORCED LINE THAT PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT. IT IS SLOW TO DEPART THE AREA, SO
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME REINVIGORATION COULD OCCUR FOR THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING, HOWEVER
BY THIS POINT, MAIN UPPER FORCING IS DEPARTING THE AREA. SOME AREAS,
PARTICULARLY WEST I-55, COULD SEE ENOUGH DECENT RAINFALL OVER A
SHORT PERIOD THAT FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AN ANOMALOUS
PLUME OF MOISTURE (2 INCH PWAT), AS WELL AS DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER,
SHOULD LEAD TO EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE
FOR TRAINING STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY, SO THIS MAY NEED TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY. THIS POTENTIAL EVENT STILL HAS A LOT OF QUESTIONS
AND UNCERTAINTY, SO WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE IN FUTURE ISSUANCES.
/SAS/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST SAT NOV 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR BR TO DEVELOP
NEAR KHEZ, KHBG, OR KPIB AROUND 12Z SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
DEVELOPMENT WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 58 79 56 78 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 56 80 52 75 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 58 80 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 56 82 56 80 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 58 81 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 60 76 52 75 / 0 10 0 10
GREENWOOD 59 78 51 75 / 0 10 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SAS20/NF
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