708
FXUS64 KJAN 170940
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
340 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
THROUGH THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND:
AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF WILL
BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
(~15-20 DEG F) THIS WEEK TO THE FORECAST AREA, AND THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING BROKEN. OUR
NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY, BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER.
GIVEN THE CONTINUED TREND IN GLOBAL MODELS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE
PRESENCE IN OUR REGION, AND WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK, THE
RISK FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS TO BE SLIM, AND AI/ML GUIDANCE
REMAIN BEARISH WITH SEVERE PROBS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THIS
SCENARIO COULD HELP SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL AS
PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WOULD PROMOTE GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR A
FAIRLY LONG DURATION FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE EXPLICIT QPF TOTALS INDICATE
UP TO TWO INCHES WILL FALL ON AVERAGE.
FOR NOW, WE PLAN NO FORMAL MESSAGING FOR WEATHER HAZARD IMPACTS,
BUT THIS REMAINS A SYSTEM AND SCENARIO WORTH MONITORING. LOOKING
AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE
BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. /EC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
DESPITE SOME STRATUS BREAKING OUT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA, VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREDOMINATELY PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY CAVEAT IS SOME PATCHY FOG THAT
COULD DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT, WHICH COULD
PERIODICALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR/LIFR STATUS THROUGHOUT
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL QUICKLY ERODE
AFTER SUNRISE, WITH VFR CATEGORIES AGAIN PREVAILING THROUGHOUT
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH, EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE EASTERLY MONDAY MORNING, AND
SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 79 60 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 76 55 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 81 61 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 83 60 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 82 61 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 77 62 81 63 / 10 0 0 10
GREENWOOD 76 61 82 63 / 0 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/19/
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