883
FXUS64 KJAN 171131 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
531 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
THROUGH THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND:
AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF WILL
BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
(~15-20 DEG F) THIS WEEK TO THE FORECAST AREA, AND THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING BROKEN. OUR
NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY, BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER.
GIVEN THE CONTINUED TREND IN GLOBAL MODELS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE
PRESENCE IN OUR REGION, AND WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK, THE
RISK FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS TO BE SLIM, AND AI/ML GUIDANCE
REMAIN BEARISH WITH SEVERE PROBS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THIS
SCENARIO COULD HELP SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL AS
PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WOULD PROMOTE GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR A
FAIRLY LONG DURATION FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE EXPLICIT QPF TOTALS INDICATE
UP TO TWO INCHES WILL FALL ON AVERAGE.
FOR NOW, WE PLAN NO FORMAL MESSAGING FOR WEATHER HAZARD IMPACTS,
BUT THIS REMAINS A SYSTEM AND SCENARIO WORTH MONITORING. LOOKING
AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE
BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. /EC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 531 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
SOME STRATUS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
DAY, BUT ANY PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG THAT DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT
WILL QUICKLY ERODE AFTER SUNRISE. THAT SAID, VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND SOUTHEASTERLY
BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AROUND
15 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 79 60 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 76 55 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 81 61 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 83 60 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 82 61 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 77 62 81 63 / 10 0 0 10
GREENWOOD 76 61 82 63 / 0 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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