704
FXUS64 KJAN 171737
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1137 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
THROUGH THIS WEEK AND WEEKEND:
AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF WILL
BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
(~15-20 DEG F) THIS WEEK TO THE FORECAST AREA, AND THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING BROKEN. OUR
NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
FRIDAY, BUT THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY AND LOW FORECAST
CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER.
GIVEN THE CONTINUED TREND IN GLOBAL MODELS FOR A STRONGER RIDGE
PRESENCE IN OUR REGION, AND WEAKER HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO APPROACH LATE THIS WEEK, THE
RISK FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS TO BE SLIM, AND AI/ML GUIDANCE
REMAIN BEARISH WITH SEVERE PROBS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THIS
SCENARIO COULD HELP SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL AS
PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY BOUNDARY WOULD PROMOTE GREATER RAIN CHANCES FOR A
FAIRLY LONG DURATION FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE EXPLICIT QPF TOTALS INDICATE
UP TO TWO INCHES WILL FALL ON AVERAGE.
FOR NOW, WE PLAN NO FORMAL MESSAGING FOR WEATHER HAZARD IMPACTS,
BUT THIS REMAINS A SYSTEM AND SCENARIO WORTH MONITORING. LOOKING
AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE
BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. /EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS AND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING LOW STRATUS/FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES PIB/HBG POTENTIALLY LOWERING CATEGORIES TO
IFR./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 60 82 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 55 82 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 61 82 62 83 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 60 84 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 61 83 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 62 81 64 82 / 0 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 60 82 64 83 / 0 0 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/KP
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