896
FXUS64 KJAN 171759
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1159 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THIS WEEK.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED
AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
THE PREVAILING UPPER-LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF
COAST/SOUTHEAST AND TROUGHING OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. MINOR
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BE DEFLECTED NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
UNDER THIS PATTERN, AND THEN A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS 7-DAY FORECAST
CYCLE WILL TRACK WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME, SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE DURING THE THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME, BUT LACK OF HEIGHT FALLS AND WEAK LOW-
LEVEL FORCING ACROSS OUR AREA SUGGEST NO ORGANIZED RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY, THE WAVE MAY PASS
OVERNIGHT WITH LIMITED SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE. EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THEN A COLD FRONT SHOULD
ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. TEMPS MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL, BUT NOT PUSHING 80/60 AS WE HAVE TO START THIS
WEEK. /NF/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS AND GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING LOW STRATUS/FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TAF SITES PIB/HBG POTENTIALLY LOWERING CATEGORIES TO
IFR./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 60 82 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 55 82 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 61 82 62 83 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 60 84 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 61 83 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 62 81 64 82 / 0 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 60 82 64 83 / 0 0 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/KP
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