322
FXUS64 KJAN 180113 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
713 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT, GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 INTO THE HIGHWAY 84 TO 98 CORRIDORS.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THIS WEEK.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED
AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 713 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
REST OF TONIGHT...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL.
EVENING SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATE MEAN RIDGE AXIS MIGRATING
EASTWARD INTO THE ARKLATEX TO MS RIVER VALLEY. WEAK STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER COLD
CORE/SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPING INTO MO. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT
MORE SOUTHERLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW
(SOUTHWESTERLY AT 925/850MB) PICK UP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. LOWS
WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM, SOME 12F TO 22F DEGREES ABOVE (52F TO
62F). THERE IS A PERSISTENT SIGNAL FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE
FOG ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20, WITH SOME AREAS IN THE
HIGHWAY 84 TO HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDORS DECENT HREF DENSE FOG
PROBABILITIES (30 TO 50 PERCENT) AND SOME DURATION OF 4 TO 8 HOURS
OF HIGHER DENSE FOG PROBS. BEST CROSSOVER TEMPS POTENTIAL
(GREATER THAN 3F) IS IN THIS SIMILAR AREA. FURTHER EAST INTO
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR NEAR THE MS/AL STATELINE, THESE AREAS
COULD SEE SOME QUICK BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY FROM ADVECTION
FOG BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE TO NO CROSSOVER FROM MUCH LOWER
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. UPDATING
THE GRAPHIC TO ADD AN ELEVATED FOG THREAT IN THESE SOUTHERN AREAS.
DENSE FOG HEADLINES ARE BEING CONTEMPLATED AND FURTHER UPDATES
MAY BE NEEDED. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
THE PREVAILING UPPER-LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF
COAST/SOUTHEAST AND TROUGHING OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. MINOR
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BE DEFLECTED NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
UNDER THIS PATTERN, AND THEN A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS 7-DAY FORECAST
CYCLE WILL TRACK WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME, SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE DURING THE THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME, BUT LACK OF HEIGHT FALLS AND WEAK LOW-
LEVEL FORCING ACROSS OUR AREA SUGGEST NO ORGANIZED RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY, THE WAVE MAY PASS
OVERNIGHT WITH LIMITED SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE. EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THEN A COLD FRONT SHOULD
ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. TEMPS MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL, BUT NOT PUSHING 80/60 AS WE HAVE TO START THIS
WEEK. /NF/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 713 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY INTO TUESDAY AND GUSTY AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT MAJORITY OF NORTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALONG INTERSTATE 20 TAF SITES, BRIEF REDUCTIONS DOWN TO
LIFR CEILINGS (STRATUS) AND LOWERED MVFR VSBY ARE A CONCERN AT
JAN, HKS AND MEI NEAR DAYBREAK (18/11-14Z TUESDAY). HBG AND PIB
HAVE BEST PROBS AND LIKELIHOOD FOR LIFR TO VLIFR VSBY (BR TO
DENSE FG) AND LIFR CEILINGS (STRATUS). ONSET TIME WILL BE JUST
SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY (18/07Z THROUGH 09Z), WITH
IMPROVEMENTS TO VSBY AROUND 18/14Z AND THEN LIFTING TO VFR JUST
BEFORE 18/18Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE NORM AFTERWARDS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 59 82 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 54 82 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 61 82 62 83 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 59 84 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 60 83 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 62 81 64 82 / 0 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 60 82 64 83 / 0 0 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/NF/DC
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