504
FXUS64 KJAN 180530 AAC
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1130 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT, GENERALLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 INTO THE HIGHWAY 84 TO 98 CORRIDORS.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THIS WEEK.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOCUSED
AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 713 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
REST OF TONIGHT...
MAIN CONCERNS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE DENSE FOG POTENTIAL.
EVENING SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS INDICATE MEAN RIDGE AXIS MIGRATING
EASTWARD INTO THE ARKLATEX TO MS RIVER VALLEY. WEAK STATIONARY
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO UPPER COLD
CORE/SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPING INTO MO. WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT
MORE SOUTHERLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW
(SOUTHWESTERLY AT 925/850MB) PICK UP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. LOWS
WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM, SOME 12F TO 22F DEGREES ABOVE (52F TO
62F). THERE IS A PERSISTENT SIGNAL FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE
FOG ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20, WITH SOME AREAS IN THE
HIGHWAY 84 TO HIGHWAY 98 CORRIDORS DECENT HREF DENSE FOG
PROBABILITIES (30 TO 50 PERCENT) AND SOME DURATION OF 4 TO 8 HOURS
OF HIGHER DENSE FOG PROBS. BEST CROSSOVER TEMPS POTENTIAL
(GREATER THAN 3F) IS IN THIS SIMILAR AREA. FURTHER EAST INTO
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR NEAR THE MS/AL STATELINE, THESE AREAS
COULD SEE SOME QUICK BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY FROM ADVECTION
FOG BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER DUE TO NO CROSSOVER FROM MUCH LOWER
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE WAKE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. UPDATING
THE GRAPHIC TO ADD AN ELEVATED FOG THREAT IN THESE SOUTHERN AREAS.
DENSE FOG HEADLINES ARE BEING CONTEMPLATED AND FURTHER UPDATES
MAY BE NEEDED. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
THE PREVAILING UPPER-LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF
COAST/SOUTHEAST AND TROUGHING OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. MINOR
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BE DEFLECTED NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
UNDER THIS PATTERN, AND THEN A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE MAIN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS 7-DAY FORECAST
CYCLE WILL TRACK WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME, SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE DURING THE THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME, BUT LACK OF HEIGHT FALLS AND WEAK LOW-
LEVEL FORCING ACROSS OUR AREA SUGGEST NO ORGANIZED RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY, THE WAVE MAY PASS
OVERNIGHT WITH LIMITED SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE. EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS POTENTIALLY HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THEN A COLD FRONT SHOULD
ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER. TEMPS MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN NORMAL, BUT NOT PUSHING 80/60 AS WE HAVE TO START THIS
WEEK. /NF/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG, SOME DENSE AND PERIODICALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE, IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN A MIX OF
MVFR/LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT AREA TAF SITES MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THAT SAID, THE BETTER RISK
FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE ACROSS THE PINE BELT REGION, I.E. KPIB &
KHBG. AT REMAINING TAF SITES, I.E. KGLH, KGWO, & KGTR, DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL OF PATCHY LOW STRATUS MAKING IT THAT FAR NORTH, A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR CATEGORIES WILL EXIST THERE THROUGH MID-MORNING TUESDAY.
BY 18Z TUESDAY, VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TAF
SITES. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR, TO LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTH AND CALM ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. BY LATE MORNING
TUESDAY, WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY AND BREEZY BETWEEN
10-15 KNOTS, GUSTING BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS AT TIMES. THIS'LL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE IN THE DELTA. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 59 81 62 82 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 52 79 59 83 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 61 82 63 82 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 59 83 60 84 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 60 83 61 83 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 62 80 63 82 / 0 10 10 0
GREENWOOD 60 81 64 83 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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