475
FXUS64 KJAN 180948
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
348 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 THIS
MORNING, AND POTENTIALLY AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY:
ADVECTION FOG IS MOVING IN TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, AND DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED IN THE
AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. DENSE FOG
SHOULD NOT EXPAND MUCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH, AND IT IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE AS WE MOVE INTO MID MORNING. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT,
HUMID WEATHER PATTERN, ADDITIONAL FOG SHOULD FORM IN ABOUT THE
SAME AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT WILL NOTE THAT THE DENSE FOG
PROBABILITIES IN THE NEAR TERM HIGH-RES GUIDANCE ARE NOT QUITE
AS GREAT AS THEY WERE FOR THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, THE PREVAILING UPPER-LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL
FEATURE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST AND
TROUGHING OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. MINOR SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
WILL BE DEFLECTED NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER THIS PATTERN,
AND THEN A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD
FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS 7-DAY FORECAST CYCLE WILL
TRACK WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME, SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME, BUT THE LACK OF HEIGHT FALLS AND WEAK
LOW- LEVEL FORCING ACROSS OUR AREA SUGGEST NO ORGANIZED RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY, THE WAVE MAY PASS
DURING THE LATE NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH LIMITED
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE.
THE EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. THEN A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
MID/LATE NOVEMBER AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. /NF/EC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG, SOME DENSE AND PERIODICALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE, IS FORECAST TO RESULT IN A MIX OF
MVFR/LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES AT AREA TAF SITES MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THAT SAID, THE BETTER RISK
FOR DENSE FOG WILL BE ACROSS THE PINE BELT REGION, I.E. KPIB &
KHBG. AT REMAINING TAF SITES, I.E. KGLH, KGWO, & KGTR, DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL OF PATCHY LOW STRATUS MAKING IT THAT FAR NORTH, A MIX OF
VFR/MVFR CATEGORIES WILL EXIST THERE THROUGH MID-MORNING TUESDAY.
BY 18Z TUESDAY, VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TAF
SITES. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR, TO LIGHT FROM
THE SOUTH AND CALM ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. BY LATE MORNING
TUESDAY, WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY AND BREEZY BETWEEN
10-15 KNOTS, GUSTING BETWEEN 20-25 KNOTS AT TIMES. THIS'LL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE IN THE DELTA. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 81 62 82 60 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 79 59 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 82 63 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 83 60 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 83 61 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 80 63 82 63 / 10 10 0 10
GREENWOOD 81 64 83 63 / 0 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ072>074.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/19
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