036
FXUS64 KJAN 181807 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1207 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE
THIS WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 931 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
THE DENSE FOG THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING HAS LIFTED INTO A LAYER OF STRATUS THAT WILL BREAK UP
AND ALLOW FOR A DECENT AMOUNT OF INSOLATION TODAY. WITH NEAR ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM SURFACE RIDGING
ALONG THE GULF COAST, TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT MUCH WARMER THAN
NORMAL IN THE LOWER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY:
ADVECTION FOG IS MOVING IN TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, AND DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED IN THE
AREA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. DENSE FOG
SHOULD NOT EXPAND MUCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH, AND IT IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE AS WE MOVE INTO MID MORNING. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT,
HUMID WEATHER PATTERN, ADDITIONAL FOG SHOULD FORM IN ABOUT THE
SAME AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT WILL NOTE THAT THE DENSE FOG
PROBABILITIES IN THE NEAR TERM HIGH-RES GUIDANCE ARE NOT QUITE
AS GREAT AS THEY WERE FOR THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE, THE PREVAILING UPPER-LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL
FEATURE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST AND
TROUGHING OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. MINOR SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
WILL BE DEFLECTED NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER THIS PATTERN,
AND THEN A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD
FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS 7-DAY FORECAST CYCLE WILL
TRACK WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME, SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME, BUT THE LACK OF HEIGHT FALLS AND WEAK
LOW- LEVEL FORCING ACROSS OUR AREA SUGGEST NO ORGANIZED RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY, THE WAVE MAY PASS
DURING THE LATE NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH LIMITED
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE.
THE EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. THEN A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
MID/LATE NOVEMBER AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. /NF/EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
A GUSTY SOUTH WIND TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON WL SUBSIDE BY 00Z.
THE MVFR CIGS AT SEVERAL TAF SITES WILL LIFT TO VFR BY 19Z AND
VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AREAWIDE UNTIL AFTER 07Z. AFTER 07Z MVFR
CIGS WL BEGIN DEVELOPING IN THE NORTH WHILE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP CNTRL AND SOUTH. THESE LOWER FLYING CONDITIONS WL TAKE
UNTIL AFTER 15Z WED TO IMPROVE TO VFR. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 81 63 83 61 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 79 60 83 58 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 82 64 82 61 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 83 61 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 83 62 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 80 64 81 63 / 10 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 81 64 82 62 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/EC/22
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