067
FXUS64 KJAN 182328
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
528 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
THROUGH WEDNESDAY: MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWED A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL
TRACK EAST AND OPEN UP TONIGHT AS IT SUPPORTS AN ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW THAT WILL ALSO BE TRACKING EAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THAT WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN MOST ZONES.
AS THE CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAIN IN OUR CWA REMAINS TOO LOW TO
CARRY POPS WL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR TONIGHT REMAINS THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG ACROSS
OUR SOUTH. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE WEST ACROSS THE
GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST LOW LEVEL
FEED FROM THE GULF INTO OUR CWA. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. WEDNESDAY IN ADDITION TO THE SURFACE RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTH, RIDGING ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER OUR REGION.
THIS WILL HELP LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH MOST SITES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF RECORD HIGHS, THE RECORD HIGH IS ONLY 81F AT
GREENWOOD FOR THE DATE SO THAT SITE MAY SET A NEW RECORD HIGH. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. MOST SITES WILL FALL SHY
OF RECORD WARM LOWS BUT THE RECORD WARM LOW FOR GREENVILLE IS ONLY
62F SO THAT SITE MAY TIE OR SET A NEW RECORD WARM LOW FOR THE DATE.
/22/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: THE PREVAILING UPPER-LEVEL
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF
COAST/SOUTHEAST AND TROUGHING OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. MINOR
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BE DEFLECTED NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA UNDER THIS PATTERN, AND THEN A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THIS 7-DAY FORECAST CYCLE WILL TRACK WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME, SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME, BUT THE LACK OF HEIGHT FALLS AND WEAK
LOW-LEVEL FORCING ACROSS OUR AREA SUGGEST NO ORGANIZED RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY, THE WAVE MAY PASS
DURING THE LATE NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH LIMITED
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE.
THE EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. CURRENT GUIDANCE FAVORS THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL SETTING UP SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE WINDOW FOR THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT HEAVY-RAIN POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THEN A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. /NF/EC/KP/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TO START OFF THE
TAF PERIOD. VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE AREAWIDE UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER
07Z. AFTER 07Z, MVFR CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTH
WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. LOW
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER 15Z WED. SEVERAL
AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS CONDITIONS
WORSEN. AFTER 15Z WED, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE TO
VFR. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 63 83 61 81 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 60 83 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 64 82 61 81 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 61 84 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 62 83 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 64 81 63 79 / 0 0 0 10
GREENWOOD 64 82 62 80 / 0 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MSZ057>066-072>074.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ024-
026.
AR...NONE.
22/KP/CR
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