668
FXUS64 KJAN 190540 AAC
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1140 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG WILL IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
THROUGH WEDNESDAY: MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWED A CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS CLOSED LOW WILL
TRACK EAST AND OPEN UP TONIGHT AS IT SUPPORTS AN ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW THAT WILL ALSO BE TRACKING EAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI THAT WILL BRING A
DIMINISHING CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN MOST ZONES.
AS THE CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAIN IN OUR CWA REMAINS TOO LOW TO
CARRY POPS WL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR TONIGHT REMAINS THE REDEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG ACROSS
OUR SOUTH. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE WEST ACROSS THE
GULF COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST LOW LEVEL
FEED FROM THE GULF INTO OUR CWA. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY ALONG
THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. WEDNESDAY IN ADDITION TO THE SURFACE RIDGING
ACROSS THE SOUTH, RIDGING ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER OUR REGION.
THIS WILL HELP LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH MOST SITES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES SHY OF RECORD HIGHS, THE RECORD HIGH IS ONLY 81F AT
GREENWOOD FOR THE DATE SO THAT SITE MAY SET A NEW RECORD HIGH. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. MOST SITES WILL FALL SHY
OF RECORD WARM LOWS BUT THE RECORD WARM LOW FOR GREENVILLE IS ONLY
62F SO THAT SITE MAY TIE OR SET A NEW RECORD WARM LOW FOR THE DATE.
/22/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: THE PREVAILING UPPER-LEVEL
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF
COAST/SOUTHEAST AND TROUGHING OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. MINOR
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL BE DEFLECTED NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA UNDER THIS PATTERN, AND THEN A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL EJECT EASTWARD FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THIS 7-DAY FORECAST CYCLE WILL TRACK WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
AT THIS TIME, SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME, BUT THE LACK OF HEIGHT FALLS AND WEAK
LOW-LEVEL FORCING ACROSS OUR AREA SUGGEST NO ORGANIZED RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY, THE WAVE MAY PASS
DURING THE LATE NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH LIMITED
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILE.
THE EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS FOR POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE
TO TWO INCHES POSSIBLE. CURRENT GUIDANCE FAVORS THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL SETTING UP SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE WINDOW FOR THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT HEAVY-RAIN POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THEN A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR MID/LATE NOVEMBER AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. /NF/EC/KP/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG, SOME DENSE AND PERIODICALLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO 1/4 MILE, WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-
MORNING AT AREA TAF SITES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR. THIS IS WHERE FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
BETWEEN MVFR/LIFR STATUS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY DENSE FOG
CURRENTLY RESIDES AT SITES ALONG THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI, I.E. KHEZ, KPIB, & KHBG. AT
REMAINING TAF SITES, I.E. KGLH, KGWO, & KGTR, DUE TO MAINLY PATCHY
LOW STRATUS, A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CATEGORIES WILL EXIST THROUGH MID-
MORNING. BY 17Z WEDNESDAY, VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT
AREA TAF SITES. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 3-5 KNOTS TO CALM. HOWEVER BY LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY, AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL BE FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5-8 KNOTS. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 62 82 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 60 82 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 65 82 62 81 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 61 84 59 82 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 62 83 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 64 81 64 80 / 0 0 10 20
GREENWOOD 64 81 63 81 / 0 0 10 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
MSZ057>066-072>074.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ024-
026.
AR...NONE.
19
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