184
FXUS64 KJAN 041802
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1202 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WET WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT: COOL AND WET THROUGH THE PERIOD AS TWO MAIN WAVES
OF RAIN MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA ALONG WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. EARLY MORNING RADARS WERE LIT UP WITH AN
AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THAT WAS EXPANDING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WERE AT OR BELOW FREEZING OVER OUR NORTHEAST
MOST ZONES LAST HOUR BUT THE PRECIPITATION WAS STILL WELL TO THE
WEST. OUR NORTHEAST MOST ZONES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
OCCURS. THE PATCHY DENSE FOG THAT WAS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTHEAST
HAS NOT DEVELOPED AND LIKELY WON'T BE AN ISSUE AS CLOUDS THICKEN AND
LIGHT RAIN MOVES IN. THIS INITIAL ROUND OF RAINFALL WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SUPPORTING A
WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT IS PROGGED TO TRACK ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST TODAY. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE EARLY
THIS MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AS
THE DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT EAST OF OUR CWA. ABOUT THE TIME
THE RAIN BECOMES CONFINED TO OUR SOUTHEAST, ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN OUR NORTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH A SECOND MORE
POTENT DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROLONG RAIN
CHANCES INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE RAIN AGAIN BEGINS TO TAPER OFF
FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER
OUR SOUTHEAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
DROP BELOW FREEZING IN OUR NORTHWEST. THE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
ENDED WELL BEFORE ANY SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES OCCUR. NORMALLY
COLDER LOCATIONS AND ELEVATED ROADS AND BRIDGES MAY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF BLACK ICE IN OUR NORTHWEST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. /22/
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
FRIDAY-SUNDAY:
WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES PROGRESS THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
TRANSPORT GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. IVT/PW VALUES IN THE 90-
99TH PERCENTILE WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES. EXPECTATION IS
THAT BETWEEN TONIGHT AND THE DAYTIME SATURDAY, AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE ABOUT 1 TO 2.5 INCHES FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20, AND ABOUT 1/4 INCH TO 1 INCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
/NF/ LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECTED BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSH
THROUGH THE ARKLAMISS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY:
POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING COOLER, DRY AIR TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DRIVE COLD, DRY AIR TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST REGION. HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSING THE GREAT
LAKES/ATLANTIC NORTHEAST WILL KEEP HIGH/LOW TEMPS CHILLY. HIGH TEMPS
WILL START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE AS HIGHS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE COLD
MONDAY NIGHT AS LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 32 DEGREES IN
THE SOUTHEAST. /SW/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
SHRA/-RA WILL LINGER PRIOR TO 19Z FOR PIB/HBG, BUT OTHERWISE LOW
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN REDUCED FLIGHT CATEGORIES
(MVFR/IFR) ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN ADDITIONAL
EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHRA/RA WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD, ENDING IN THE SAME FASHION BETWEEN 04Z AND
06Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND NORTHERLY. /86/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 39 50 41 57 / 80 20 40 30
MERIDIAN 39 51 39 54 / 90 30 40 40
VICKSBURG 37 49 40 57 / 50 20 30 30
HATTIESBURG 44 55 45 58 / 80 50 70 70
NATCHEZ 37 49 41 59 / 60 30 50 30
GREENVILLE 33 45 38 52 / 30 0 20 10
GREENWOOD 34 47 37 54 / 70 0 20 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SW/LP
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