158
FXUS64 KJAN 050136 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
736 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WET WEATHER AND COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- THE NEXT WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 736 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
REST OF TONIGHT...
WET, RAINY AND DREARY FORECAST IS ON TAP FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
RAP AND GOES EAST WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS INDICATE TROUGH AXIS
SPINNING OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA, WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW/ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS KEEPING A SURFACE LOW IN
NORTHERN GULF, FRONTOGENESIS AND DEEP MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE
WATER AROUND 1.2 TO 1.6 INCHES). AS POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION
DRIVES THE DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING, DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEAST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH PWS FALLING LESS THAN THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE WHILE NEAR AN INCH TO AN
INCH AND A HALF TO THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN COVERAGE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE BY MIDNIGHT AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE
AREA, TEMPORARILY, AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY. DUE TO VERY LIGHT
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE, SOME FOG CAN'T BE RULED
OUT, BUT LIKELY NOT DENSE AND SPARSE IN COVERAGE. LOWS WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL NORTHWEST (31F TO 36F), WHILE SEASONABLE
SOUTHEAST (37F TO 45F). FORECAST UPDATES ARE OUT EARLIER. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
A JET STREAM ORIENTED FROM WEST TEXAS TO NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP BROAD
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE OVER THE GULF COAST AND DEEP SOUTH
REGIONS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR STEADY
RAINFALL IN ROUNDS AS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT ENHANCE MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. PWAT VALUES OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF ARE AROUND 1.5+ INCHES, IN THIS RANGE ARE ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA, SO MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
REMAIN EFFICIENT AND SOME HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE. THE PLUME IS
MOSTLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA BUT EXTENDS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN BROUGHT ABOUT 0.10 INCHES OF
RAIN TO AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20, AND ABOUT 0.50 TO 2.0 INCHES
TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. EXPECTATION IS THAT BETWEEN THAT
FIRST ROUND, THE INCOMING NEXT ROUND THIS AFTERNOON, AND ADDITIONAL
RAIN THROUGH THE DAYTIME SATURDAY, AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
ABOUT 1 TO 2.5 INCHES FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20, AND ABOUT
1/4 INCH TO 1 INCH FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH. A REASONABLE UPPER RANGE
FOR RAINFALL FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR
IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI WOULD BE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 4
INCHES.
THIS PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPS FAIRLY STABLE BETWEEN
MOSTLY 40S AND 50S. THEN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN WILL
SHIFT. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT EASTWARD, AND
DRIER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP ACROSS THE COUNTRY. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK. MONDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE
OUR COOLEST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES
TO DROP BELOW FREEZING (DOWN TO THE MID 20S OR SO) WITH THAT AIR
MASS. AND THEN A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AT THE TAIL END OF
THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. /NF/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 736 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
SHRA AND RA ONGOING WILL GRADUALLY DWINDLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH PERIODS LOWERED CEILINGS/STRATUS AND BRIEF REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY/BR (MVFR/IFR). THERE COULD BE SOME REDUCTIONS TO LIFR
CEILINGS/STRATUS OVERNIGHT, WITH SLOW LIFTING TO MVFR AT GLH AND
GWO AROUND 05/17-18Z FRIDAY WHILE EVEN LATER AT OTHER TAF SITES
BETWEEN 05/19-22Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY. SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH WITH THE ONSET AT
HEZ, HBG, PIB AND MEI BETWEEN 05/19-22Z FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 39 50 41 57 / 70 20 40 30
MERIDIAN 39 51 39 54 / 90 30 40 40
VICKSBURG 37 49 40 57 / 50 20 30 30
HATTIESBURG 44 55 45 58 / 80 50 70 70
NATCHEZ 38 49 41 59 / 50 30 50 30
GREENVILLE 33 45 38 52 / 30 0 20 10
GREENWOOD 35 47 37 54 / 60 0 20 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/NF
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