799
FXUS64 KJAN 050930
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL TEMPERATURES WITH RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
- STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE WHOLE AREA
SUNDAY.
- THE NEXT WIDESPREAD LIGHT FREEZE IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT: EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A WEAK SURFACE
LOW JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND A >1020
ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO OUR CWA AND WEAKEN WHILE THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF
COAST CONTINUES TRACKING EAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN RAIN CHANCES FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT MODELS AGREE THAT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW UP MOISTURE AND
COMBINED WITH VERY SUBTLE DISTURBANCES, MAINTAIN LOW CHANCES OF
LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
RAIN CHANCES AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH THE CONTINUED
CAA FROM THE SURFACE HIGH, WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
NORMAL AGAIN TODAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST, COOLER THAN NORMAL MORNING LOWS WILL
CONTINUE AT MOST LOCATIONS AS WELL. /22/
OVERALL, THE PREVAILING UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RATHER SUBDUED. BROAD TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL CONUS
THIS WEEKEND, ACCOMPANIED BY MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES, WILL
MAINTAIN LINGERING RAIN CHANCES AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA, WHERE A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE GULF COAST. EXPECT TO SEE LOW TO MODERATE RAIN CHANCES AT TIMES,
WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN WILL BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AS
TROUGHING SHIFTS EASTWARD AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT USHERS IN A
COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA BY EARLY-MIDWEEK, SUPPORTING A NOTABLE DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT MAY FALL INTO THE MID-20S AREAWIDE.
ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER COLD FRONT LATE IN THE PERIOD MAY BRING
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST WINDOW.
/KP/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST THU DEC 4 2025
SHRA AND RA ONGOING WILL GRADUALLY DWINDLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH PERIODS LOWERED CEILINGS/STRATUS AND BRIEF REDUCTIONS
IN VSBY/BR (MVFR/IFR). THERE COULD BE SOME REDUCTIONS TO LIFR
CEILINGS/STRATUS OVERNIGHT, WITH SLOW LIFTING TO MVFR AT GLH AND
GWO AROUND 05/17-18Z FRIDAY WHILE EVEN LATER AT OTHER TAF SITES
BETWEEN 05/19-22Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
NORTHERLY. SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL LIFT NORTH WITH THE ONSET AT
HEZ, HBG, PIB AND MEI BETWEEN 05/19-22Z FRIDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF CYCLE. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 48 40 57 45 / 10 20 20 10
MERIDIAN 50 38 55 41 / 30 30 20 10
VICKSBURG 47 39 57 45 / 10 20 10 10
HATTIESBURG 53 44 58 46 / 50 40 50 20
NATCHEZ 48 40 59 46 / 20 30 20 10
GREENVILLE 44 36 52 43 / 0 10 10 10
GREENWOOD 47 35 55 42 / 0 10 10 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/KP/DC
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