961
FXUS64 KJAN 061951
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
151 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
- LIGHT RAINFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING: THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. A WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN WITH A COOL, HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE SHOULD BRING
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH MIXING STRENGTH AND JUST HOW LOW VISIBILITY WILL
BE ABLE TO GET. FOR NOW, HAVE MESSAGED A LIMITED DENSE FOG THREAT
IN THE HAZARD GRAPHICS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR GREATER
POTENTIAL AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEK: A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER
FOR WEATHER IN OUR REGION, RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BRING A QUICK ROUND OF
MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, WE'LL SEE ANOTHER SURGE OF
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR DRAWN SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA, AND
THIS WILL BRING SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH A FREEZE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SOME, AND THEY SHOULD ACTUALLY REACH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR
WED/THU FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE BEFORE THANKSGIVING.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND: WE'RE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF COLD AIR BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED DECIDEDLY COOLER WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN AND SUGGEST A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH MAY DEVELOP AND SURGE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS ARE TOO LOW FOR MESSAGING AT THIS POINT.
/EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED A BIT RESULTING IN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MOST CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TAF SITES WITH FEW/SCT LOW CLOUDS.
INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF SLIGHT THICKENING TO BKN HAS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS BEFORE
CEILINGS LOWER MORE CONSISTENTLY TO MVFR/IFR AFTER 00Z. LOWERED
VSBY TO IFR/LIFR WITH AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 09Z AND
16Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, UNDER 7 KTS, AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH. /86/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 42 61 42 53 / 0 40 30 0
MERIDIAN 38 60 41 53 / 0 20 40 0
VICKSBURG 43 60 39 52 / 0 40 20 0
HATTIESBURG 43 66 46 58 / 10 30 50 0
NATCHEZ 44 66 41 54 / 0 40 30 0
GREENVILLE 40 55 38 47 / 0 20 10 0
GREENWOOD 40 58 38 50 / 0 20 20 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/LP/
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