253
FXUS64 KJAN 070052 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
652 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THIS NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 648 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES RADIATE, AND MOISTURE SPREADS
NORTHWARD. HREF GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS DECENT PROBABILITIES FOR FOG
ACROSS THE AREA, SO HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT THROUGH 9 AM SUNDAY. THE REST OF THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. /NF/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING: THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE FOG
DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. A WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN WITH A COOL, HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE SHOULD BRING
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH MIXING STRENGTH AND JUST HOW LOW VISIBILITY WILL
BE ABLE TO GET. FOR NOW, HAVE MESSAGED A LIMITED DENSE FOG THREAT
IN THE HAZARD GRAPHICS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR GREATER
POTENTIAL AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEK: A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER
FOR WEATHER IN OUR REGION, RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BRING A QUICK ROUND OF
MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, WE'LL SEE ANOTHER SURGE OF
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR DRAWN SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA, AND
THIS WILL BRING SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH A FREEZE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SOME, AND THEY SHOULD ACTUALLY REACH ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR
WED/THU FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE BEFORE THANKSGIVING.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND: WE'RE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF COLD AIR BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED DECIDEDLY COOLER WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN AND SUGGEST A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH MAY DEVELOP AND SURGE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS ARE TOO LOW FOR MESSAGING AT THIS POINT.
/EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CST SAT DEC 6 2025
MAIN CONCERN FOR AVIATION WILL BE LOW STRATUS AND FG PRODUCING
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AND
PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z SUNDAY. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT MOST SITES.
/NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 43 62 42 53 / 0 40 30 0
MERIDIAN 39 61 41 53 / 10 20 40 0
VICKSBURG 44 61 39 52 / 0 60 20 0
HATTIESBURG 44 67 46 58 / 10 20 50 0
NATCHEZ 45 67 41 54 / 0 50 30 0
GREENVILLE 41 55 38 47 / 0 40 10 0
GREENWOOD 41 58 38 50 / 0 40 20 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR ARZ074-075.
EC/NF
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