193
FXUS64 KJAN 081726
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1126 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A RETURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL AND DRY WEATHER TODAY WILL
LAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
- AFTER A WARM-UP DURING THE MID WEEK, WE'LL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT: COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS NEARLY ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA STATE
LINE. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HAS PUSHED SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA. LOCAL
RADARS SHOWED MOST OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED EAST OF
MISSISSIPPI ALTHOUGH A THICK LAYER OF STRATUS REMAINED OVER OUR CWA.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST TODAY AND SURFACE
RIDGING FROM THE WEST MOVES OVER OVER OUR CWA, CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO OUR CWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD IN
THE 40S OVER THE NORTH AND IN THE 50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. TONIGHT THE
WIND WILL DECOUPLE AND BECOME NEAR CALM. THERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS HINDERING PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING BUT MORNING
LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT BELOW FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS. /22/
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY: TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
BY LATE WEEK, ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
REGION, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR THE RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES.
WHILE MODEL TRENDS HAVE REDUCED THE SIGNAL FOR PRECIP, WE WILL
STILL MAINTAIN LOW-END RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS FRONT, TEMPERATURES MAY AGAIN PLUMMET INTO THE
MID-20S, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. WHILE THIS COLDER SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE, MODEL CONSENSUS
REMAINS LIMITED AT THIS RANGE REGARDING WHETHER ANOTHER SURGE OF
POLAR AIR WILL REACH OUR CWA. /KP/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST MON DEC 8 2025
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 20Z MONDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVING. AFTER 20Z, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR CEILINGS. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY 23Z MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. AFTER 12Z TUESDAY, MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MULTIPLE SOUTHERN TAF SITES (HBG & PIB). CEILINGS
WILL START TO IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE SOUTH BY 14Z TUESDAY. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 51 32 57 39 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 53 28 56 35 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 50 32 57 40 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 58 32 59 37 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 52 32 59 40 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 46 31 52 40 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 48 30 54 40 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/KP/CR
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