712
FXUS64 KJAN 081939
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
139 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- CHILLY CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK WITH PERHAPS SOME
FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
- DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY AS WE GO THROUGH
MID TO LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- COLDER WEATHER MAY RETURN BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: IN THE NEAR TERM, A LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION PATTERN PROMISES TO MAINTAIN CHILLY CONDITIONS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, AND WITH THAT, THERE IS A LOT UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW QUICKLY THE STRATUS MAY ERODE AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT.
HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
SHOULD SHUT DOWN AT MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN A
GREATER CHANCE FOR STRATUS DISSIPATION, BUT WITH LITTLE MIXING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FEEBLE EARLY DEC SUN,
WE'RE LEANING TOWARD A MORE PESSIMISTIC LOW CLOUD FORECAST.
WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING
AT MANY LOCATIONS, AND NOT GET QUITE AS COLD AS CURRENTLY
FORECAST BY MODEL BLENDS. ALSO, THERE WOULD ALSO BE LESS
OPPORTUNITY FOR FOG FORMATION. ON THE FLIP SIDE, IN THE CASE OF
EARLIER CLEARING, WE WOULD HAVE COLDER LOWS AND GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR FOG, BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AND THE DENSE FOG
THREAT TOO CONDITIONAL TO FORMALLY MESSAGE IT AT THIS POINT. THE
BOTTOM LINE HERE IS TO EXPECT A CLOUDIER AND NOT AS COLD/FOGGY
FORECAST TONIGHT, BUT MONITOR FOR EARLIER CLEARING AND FORECAST
CHANGES THAT WOULD BRING.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND: DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE IN OUR AREA, AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE IF ANY CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL AS WE FINISH UP THIS WEEK AND GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE MAY BE A MORE DRAMATIC WARM-UP FRIDAY/SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH MUCH CHILLIER TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE LONGER RANGE REMAINS
QUITE LOW DUE TO LARGE VARIANCE IN THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES AND POOR
RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE DETAILS IN OUR AREA. /EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CST MON DEC 8 2025
THE CURRENT COLD ADVECTION STRATUS SCENARIO WILL MAKE FOR A
CHALLENGING CEILING/VSBY FORECAST AS WE GO THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND LOWER SUN ANGLE
BRINGING LESS CHANCE FOR EROSION OF THE DECK THIS AFTERNOON,
WILL KEEP THE AREA TAFS PESSIMISTIC, AND HANG ONTO MVFR/IFR
CATEGORY CEILINGS THROUGH TONIGHT AND EVEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
WITH THAT SAID, THERE IS AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE THAT CEILINGS
WILL CLEAR ENOUGH THIS EVENING TO PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
LATER TONIGHT. ANY STRATUS/FOG THAT MAKES IT TO TUE MORNING SHOULD
IMPROVE QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING. /EC/CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 31 57 39 64 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 28 56 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 32 56 39 64 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 32 59 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 32 58 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 31 52 41 60 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 30 54 40 61 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/CR/
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