598
FXUS64 KJAN 231437
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
837 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 832 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
BROAD UPPER RIDGING IS NOTED OVER THE CONUS THIS MORNING, WHILE
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW HAS LEAD TO INCREASED BL MOISTURE IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG THIS
MORNING IN THESE AREAS. THIS SHOULD MIX OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO WITH DENSE FOG ADVISORY SET TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM./SAS/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
THROUGH NEXT WEEK:A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH
ITSELF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS IT WILL SERVE AS THE DOMINANT
FEATURE OVER THE REGION TODAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD, SUBSIDENCE WILL
PROMOTE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO MEANINGFUL FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE DEPTH OF THE RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EARLY IN THE PERIOD, UNSEASONABLE WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS, WITH READINGS
RUNNING SUM 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD. THIS WILL
SUPPORT CLEARING SKIES AREAWIDE A DRY AIRMASS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED BENEATH
THE RIDGE, AS A RESULT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID-UPPER 70S THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SOME AREAS
POTENTLY REACHING RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD, GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE LOW 50S
TO LOW 60S THOUGH SATURDAY.
BY THIS WEEKEND, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AS A
STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARDS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES, DRIVING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA BY SUNDAY, INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND SPREADING THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE STEADILY THROUGH THE
AREA, USHERING IN STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND IT DROPPING
TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY TO BELOW FREEZING BY MONDAY MORNING./KP/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
CLOUDS, ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG (SOME DENSE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI),
WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN FLIGHT CATEGORIES RANGING FROM VFR/IFR
THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z TODAY. WHILE FOG WILL ERODE AFTER SUNRISE,
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST TODAY, WILL
RESULT IN CLOUDS ERODING WHILE LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS
WILL ALLOW FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS AREAWIDE
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER COME EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, BOTH LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY AT KHEZ, KPIB, & KHBG. THUS AGAIN
REDUCING FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO A MIX OF VFR/IFR CATEGORIES ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS BY LATE THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SUSTAINED FROM
THE WEST SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS, AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 77 55 76 56 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 76 52 75 53 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 78 56 76 56 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 79 56 78 55 / 0 0 0 10
NATCHEZ 78 56 76 57 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 73 58 73 58 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 76 57 75 58 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ053-054-
059>066-072>074.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ024>026.
AR...NONE.
KP/KP/19
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