674
FXUS64 KJAN 231808
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1208 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 TOMORROW MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
- COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SUBFREEZING
LOWS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
TONIGHT...
THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EASTWARD TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
WHILE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PERSISTS AND CONTINUES TO LOCK IN BL
MOISTURE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT,
WITH PROBABILITIES AROUND 80% FOR VISIBILITIES QUARTER MILE OR LESS
ACROSS A LARGE SWATH OF THE AREA, MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. A FOG
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR TOMORROW MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN
LIGHT OF HOLIDAY TRAVEL. GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE AND LIKELIHOOD OF
HIGHER IMPACTS DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL, HAVE OPTED FOR AN ELEVATED
GRAPHIC IN ADVANCE.
TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET CONDITIONS THIS HOLIDAY WEEK, WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL, EVEN
NEAR RECORD, TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S AND
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S, BUT SOME SPOTS COULD PEAK AT 80
DEGREES BY FRI/SAT. THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE PEAKS SATURDAY AND THIS
SHOULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR 80 DEGREES.
BY SUNDAY, UPPER SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA,
THEREBY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY, HOWEVER
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE FRONT, SO EXPECT SOME GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THIS
EVOLVES AS A LIMITED GRAPHIC MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED DOWN THE LINE.
THE WIND AND LINGERING RAIN SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA ABOVE
FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINTER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATES
TOWARDS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HARD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AREAWIDE MONDAY
NIGHT AND ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THIS,
THE CORE OF THE COLD LOOKS TO MISS OUR AREA, AND SO DANGEROUS COLD
IS NOT EXPECTED./SAS/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
FOG HAS LIFTED AND CLOUDS WERE SLOWLY BREAKING UP FROM THE SOUTH.
LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FOR A SEVERAL HOURS AT ALL
SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCES SHOWS STRATUS AND FOG RETURNING
AGAIN TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES. GUIDANCE HAS
CLOUDS RETURNING BEFORE MIDNIGHT, BUT BACKED OFF A FEW HOURS. MORE
DENSE FOG IS LIKELY SOUTH AND CENTRAL TONIGHT. FOR PIB, HBG AND
HEZ, STARTED LOW CLOUDS AND THEN FOG FROM 6-9Z AND 9-12Z FOR HKS,
JAN AND MEI. FOR THE NORTHERN SITES, IT LOOKS LIKE STRATUS
SETTLES IN AROUND DAYBREAK AND MAY HOLD ON UNTIL NEAR NOON. NOT
CONFIDENT IN FOG MOVING INTO THOSE AREAS, SO HELD OFF FOR NOW.
PATCHY FOG, SOMETIME DENSE IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT DOESN'T
SEEM LIKELY FROM GLH TO GTR AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 77 55 76 56 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 76 53 76 53 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 78 56 77 56 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 79 56 76 53 / 0 0 0 10
NATCHEZ 78 57 77 56 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 73 58 74 58 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 76 57 75 58 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
7
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page