703
FXUS64 KJAN 240418
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1018 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 TOMORROW MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
- COLD TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SUBFREEZING
LOWS.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT THANKS TO THE SFC HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. LATE
EVENING HREF GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING DECENT PROBABILITIES (50-60%)
OF DENSE FOG MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 INCLUDING
SEVERAL OF OUR NORTHEAST LA PARISHES. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO
THE FOG GRAPHIC FOR TONIGHT AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR AREAS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE "ELEVATED" RISK. THE ADVISORY WILL
EXPIRE AT 10 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING. SKY COVER WILL START OFF CLEAR
TONIGHT WITH LOW STRATUS BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS WE HEAD INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
AREAWIDE. UPDATES ARE OUT. /CR/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
TONIGHT...
THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EASTWARD TODAY INTO TONIGHT,
WHILE SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW PERSISTS AND CONTINUES TO LOCK IN BL
MOISTURE. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PROMOTE CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT,
WITH PROBABILITIES AROUND 80% FOR VISIBILITIES QUARTER MILE OR LESS
ACROSS A LARGE SWATH OF THE AREA, MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. A FOG
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR TOMORROW MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN
LIGHT OF HOLIDAY TRAVEL. GIVEN HIGH CONFIDENCE AND LIKELIHOOD OF
HIGHER IMPACTS DUE TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL, HAVE OPTED FOR AN ELEVATED
GRAPHIC IN ADVANCE.
TOMORROW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
BROAD UPPER RIDGING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CONUS WILL MAINTAIN
QUIET CONDITIONS THIS HOLIDAY WEEK, WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL, EVEN
NEAR RECORD, TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S AND
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S, BUT SOME SPOTS COULD PEAK AT 80
DEGREES BY FRI/SAT. THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE PEAKS SATURDAY AND THIS
SHOULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR 80 DEGREES.
BY SUNDAY, UPPER SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA,
THEREBY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY, HOWEVER
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE FRONT, SO EXPECT SOME GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THIS
EVOLVES AS A LIMITED GRAPHIC MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED DOWN THE LINE.
THE WIND AND LINGERING RAIN SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA ABOVE
FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINTER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PROPAGATES
TOWARDS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HARD FREEZING
TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AREAWIDE MONDAY
NIGHT AND ANOTHER COLD NIGHT ON TAP FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THIS,
THE CORE OF THE COLD LOOKS TO MISS OUR AREA, AND SO DANGEROUS COLD
IS NOT EXPECTED./SAS/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2025
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES TO START OFF THE TAF
PERIOD. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL FOR SEVERAL HOURS THROUGH 06Z.
AFTER 06Z, STRATUS AND FOG WILL RETURN FOR SOUTHERN SITES. STRATUS
AND FOG WILL THEN DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL TAF SITES
BETWEEN 06Z-15Z WEDNESDAY LEADING TO A MIXTURE OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS MULTIPLE SITES THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS CONDITIONS WORSEN. GLH AND GWO WILL SEE A
BRIEF DROP VISIBILITY BY 13Z. NORTHERN SITES WILL START TO SEE
IMPROVEMENTS BY 15Z. STRATUS WILL START TO LIFT AFTER 15Z WITH
FURTHER IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR CEILINGS BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 56 76 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 53 76 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 56 77 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 56 76 53 76 / 0 0 10 0
NATCHEZ 57 77 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 58 74 58 75 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 56 75 58 76 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ047>066-
072>074.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LAZ015-016-
023>026.
AR...NONE.
7/SAS/CR
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