821
FXUS64 KJAN 241751 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1151 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA CHRISTMAS MORNING.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 949 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
THE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG THIS MORNING HAS LIFTED ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WAS IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING CENTRAL AND SOUTH. PATCHY DENSE
FOG WILL LIKELY LINGER IN THE SOUTH BEYOND 10AM WHEN THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY EXPIRES. AS THE IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY DURING THE
NEXT HOUR IS EXPECTED TO BE RAPID, THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL NOT
BE EXTENDED. HOWEVER, LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA
AGAIN TONIGHT SO A NEW DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED.
OTHERWISE, AS THE FOG DISSIPATES AND ISOLATION OCCURS,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM RAPIDLY AND TOP OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK:
WIDESPREAD FOG IS ADVECTING INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING, PARTICULARLY OVER EASTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. PER LATEST OBS/GUIDANCE TRENDS, HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY AND ELEVATED THREAT AREA INTO NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.
OTHERWISE, HIGHLY ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
CONUS WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS THIS HOLIDAY WEEK, WITH MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL, EVEN NEAR RECORD, TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S, BUT SOME SPOTS
COULD PEAK AT 80 DEGREES BY FRI/SAT. THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE PEAKS
SATURDAY AND THIS SHOULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR 80 DEGREES.
BY SUNDAY, UPPER SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA,
THEREBY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY, HOWEVER
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE FRONT, SO EXPECT SOME GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THIS
EVOLVES AS A LIMITED WIND GRAPHIC MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED DOWN
THE LINE. THE WIND AND LINGERING RAIN SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA
ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINTER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD POLAR SURFACE HIGH
PROPAGATES TOWARDS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. LONG
NIGHTS OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S BOTH MON AND TUE NIGHTS. /SAS/EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
LIFR/IFR CIGS IN THE SOUTH WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 19Z. AFTER 19Z
VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AREAWIDE UNTIL AFTER 06Z. AFTER 06Z CIGS
AND VSBYS WL BEGIN LOWERING FROM THE SE. BY 10Z IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES EXCEPT GLH-GWO WHERE
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WL SLOWLY IMPROVE THU
MORNING FROM THE NW AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 78 57 76 59 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 77 53 76 56 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 78 58 76 61 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 78 55 76 56 / 0 0 0 10
NATCHEZ 78 57 76 61 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 76 59 74 61 / 0 0 10 0
GREENWOOD 77 58 75 61 / 0 0 10 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR MSZ027>033-035>066-072>074.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR LAZ016-024>026.
AR...NONE.
22/EC/22
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