459
FXUS64 KJAN 241904
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
104 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA CHRISTMAS MORNING.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
TONIGHT...
THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO
TONIGHT WHILE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO LOCK IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT, DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ONCE
AGAIN, THOUGH WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED FURTHER EAST,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS
EVER SO SLIGHTLY STRONGER, 5-7MPH. THIS IS ENOUGH TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE FOR DENSE FOG WEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE TONIGHT. STRONG
CROSSOVER TEMPS 5-7 DEGREES ALSO BOOST CONFIDENCE FOR EASTERN AREAS.
IN LIGHT OF THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AND HIGH CONFIDENCE, HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN ADVANCE, AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED
ELEVATED HWO GRAPHIC.
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...
OTHERWISE, HIGHLY ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS THIS HOLIDAY WEEK, WITH MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL, EVEN NEAR RECORD, TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 70S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S, BUT SOME SPOTS COULD
PEAK AT 80 DEGREES BY FRI/SAT. THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE PEAKS SATURDAY
AND THIS SHOULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR 80 DEGREES.
BY SUNDAY, UPPER SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA,
THEREBY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY, HOWEVER
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE FRONT, SO EXPECT SOME GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THIS
EVOLVES AS A LIMITED WIND GRAPHIC MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED DOWN THE
LINE. THE WIND AND LINGERING RAIN SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA ABOVE
FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINTER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD POLAR SURFACE HIGH
PROPAGATES TOWARDS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. LONG
NIGHTS OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S BOTH MON AND TUE NIGHTS. PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME SETS UP NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES COOLER
ALONG WITH SOME CLOUDS. /SAS/EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST WED DEC 24 2025
LIFR/IFR CIGS IN THE SOUTH WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 19Z. AFTER 19Z
VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AREAWIDE UNTIL AFTER 06Z. AFTER 06Z CIGS
AND VSBYS WL BEGIN LOWERING FROM THE SE. BY 10Z IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES EXCEPT GLH-GWO WHERE
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WL SLOWLY IMPROVE THU
MORNING FROM THE NW AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 57 76 59 77 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 53 76 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 58 76 61 78 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 55 76 56 78 / 0 0 10 0
NATCHEZ 57 76 61 78 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 59 74 61 76 / 0 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 58 75 61 76 / 0 10 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR MSZ027>033-035>066-072>074.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR LAZ016-024>026.
AR...NONE.
SAS20/SAS20/22
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