917
FXUS64 KJAN 250406
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1006 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA CHRISTMAS MORNING.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1006 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
EVENING NEAR TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE SFC HIGH
PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOCK IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT, HREF GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PROBABILITIES (50-60%) FOR DENSE FOG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FOG
GRAPHIC AND "ELEVATED" RISK WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. LIKEWISE, THE "LIMITED" RISK FOR DENSE
FOG WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR AREAS WEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL
10 AM CHRISTMAS MORNING FOR AREAS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE "ELEVATED"
RISK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AREAWIDE.
UPDATES ARE OUT. /CR/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
TONIGHT...
THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO
TONIGHT WHILE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO LOCK IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT, DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ONCE
AGAIN, THOUGH WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED FURTHER EAST,
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER EAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS
EVER SO SLIGHTLY STRONGER, 5-7MPH. THIS IS ENOUGH TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE FOR DENSE FOG WEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE TONIGHT. STRONG
CROSSOVER TEMPS 5-7 DEGREES ALSO BOOST CONFIDENCE FOR EASTERN AREAS.
IN LIGHT OF THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY AND HIGH CONFIDENCE, HAVE OPTED TO
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN ADVANCE, AS WELL AS ASSOCIATED
ELEVATED HWO GRAPHIC.
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...
OTHERWISE, HIGHLY ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CONUS
WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS THIS HOLIDAY WEEK, WITH MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL, EVEN NEAR RECORD, TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 70S AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S, BUT SOME SPOTS COULD
PEAK AT 80 DEGREES BY FRI/SAT. THE 850 THERMAL RIDGE PEAKS SATURDAY
AND THIS SHOULD BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR 80 DEGREES.
BY SUNDAY, UPPER SHORTWAVE/UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA,
THEREBY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY, HOWEVER
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE FRONT, SO EXPECT SOME GUSTY
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THIS
EVOLVES AS A LIMITED WIND GRAPHIC MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED DOWN THE
LINE. THE WIND AND LINGERING RAIN SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE AREA ABOVE
FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINTER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD POLAR SURFACE HIGH
PROPAGATES TOWARDS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. LONG
NIGHTS OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 20S BOTH MON AND TUE NIGHTS. PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME SETS UP NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES COOLER
ALONG WITH SOME CLOUDS. /SAS/EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST WED DEC 24 2025
THE TAF PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH VFR CEILINGS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
TO START OFF THE PERIOD. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE UNTIL
06Z. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY, CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BEGIN TO LOWER
FROM TO THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER 09Z THURSDAY, IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MULTIPLE TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR GLH-GWO
WHERE MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 16Z THURSDAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS MULTIPLE
SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS CONDITIONS WORSEN. AFTER
16Z THURSDAY, CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THURSDAY
MORNING FROM THE NORTHWEST. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES BY 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 56 76 59 77 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 53 76 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 58 76 61 78 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 55 76 56 78 / 0 0 10 0
NATCHEZ 57 76 61 78 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 59 74 61 76 / 0 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 58 75 61 76 / 0 10 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MSZ027>033-
035>066-072>074.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR LAZ016-024>026.
AR...NONE.
SAS20/SAS20/CR
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