218
FXUS64 KJAN 251823 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1223 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG LIKELY SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 10AM. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS/SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWED THE FOG RAPIDLY LIFTING AND ERODING OVER THE CWA. HIGH
PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE TODAY AND
RESULT IN ANOTHER WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST THU DEC 25 2025
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS ABOVE AVERAGE. AN
UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER PATTERN WITH STRONG CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM NEAR RECORD WARMTH,
WE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE LATE NIGHT TO EARLY MORNING DENSE
FOG EVENTS, MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WHERE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED.
AFTER A LONG STRETCH OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH, THERE WILL BE A
SHARP CHANGE TO MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS IN A RUSH OF COLD POLAR AIR. MOST GUIDANCE
HAVE SLOWED DOWN A BIT WITH FRONTAL TIMING, AND NOW SHOW THAT THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MOST LIKELY BE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT, AND
POSSIBLY AS LATE AS AFTER DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT, STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FROM RISING MUCH IF ANY MONDAY, AND BRISK NORTHWEST/NORTHERLY
WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE FORMAL MESSAGING IN THE HWO
GRAPHICS. THE COLD HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MID WEEK BRINGING A FEW NIGHTS OF LONG DURATION FREEZES, BUT
DANGEROUS COLD IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED. /EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
IFR/MVFR CIGS WL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO
AND VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL FROM 21Z THROUGH 06Z FRI. AFTER 06Z
FRI CIGS WL BEGIN DROPPING AND MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE
BY 10Z. LIFR VSBYS WL BE PSBL IN THE SOUTH 11-14Z BUT IFR/MVFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL BEGINNING TO IMPROVE AFTER 16Z. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 77 59 76 61 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 75 55 75 58 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 76 61 78 62 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 75 57 77 60 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 76 61 78 63 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 75 61 76 62 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 76 61 76 62 / 0 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/EC/22
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