976
FXUS64 KJAN 260500
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1100 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG LIKELY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 948 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
GUIDANCE SUPPORTED FOG AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING, IT
DEVELOPED A LITTLE SOONER THAN ANTICIPATED. ISSUED A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY, KEEPING IT GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-20, BUT WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED AND STRATUS HASN'T QUITE COVERED THE NORTHWEST, SO SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS DEVELOPING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
WILL MAINTAIN THE ADVISORY AREA FOR NOW, PATCHY DENSE FOG WAS
MENTIONED IN THE ZONES ALONG I-20 AND PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED
EVERYWHERE ELSE. NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST,
TEMPS AND EVERYTHING WERE ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
THROUGH FRIDAY: SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING ALOFT
OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS OUR
CWA. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1018MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF THAT WAS RIDGING WEST ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS WAS
RESULTING IN A MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA.
THESE FEATURES WILL CHANGE LITTLE AND REMAIN DOMINANT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
PROBABILITIES OF DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ARE LESS THAN THE PAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS AND ARE MORE FOCUSED ON OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE DENSE FOG WILL BE PATCHY SO HAVE OPTED NOT TO
ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WITH LESS FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING, ISOLATION WILL GET AN EARLIER
START AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
THAN TODAY. /22/
AFTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL-ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, A
SIGNIFICANT SHIFT TO MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, USHERING IN A
SURGE OF POLAR AIR. RECENT GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT SLIGHTLY, WITH PASSAGE NOW MOST LIKELY OCCURRING MONDAY
MORNING. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT STILL LOOKS TO BE LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH FOR ALL FORECAST ZONES.
BEHIND THE FRONT, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE
RECOVERY MONDAY WITH READINGS LIKELY REMAINING STEADY OR EVEN
FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. BRISK NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE COLD AIR AND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT FORMAL
MENTION IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK GRAPHICS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK, BRINGING
SEVERAL NIGHTS OF PROLONGED FREEZING TEMPERATURES. COLDEST
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, HOVERING IN THE
MID 20S AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE BOTH NIGHTS. WHILE THESE
TEMPERATURES DO INDEED SIGNAL A NOTABLE COLD SPELL, DANGEROUS COLD
IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
LOOKING MUCH FURTHER AHEAD, IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE WE RECOVER STEADY
WARMTH (LOWS MID TO UPPER 50S; HIGHS IN THE 60S) UNTIL A FEW
DAYS AFTER NEW YEAR'S DAY./OAJ/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 948 PM CST THU DEC 25 2025
VISIBILITIES WERE ALREADY BOUNCING AROUND WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS
FALLING TO 1/4 SM AND BACK UP. EARLIER GUIDANCE SUGGESTED FOG AND
STRATUS WOULD SETTLE IN FOR THE NIGHT, GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT,
BUT THE LATEST RUN HAS SOME INCONSISTENCIES ACROSS MODELS. WILL
MAINTAIN THE FORECAST FOR NOW AND LIKELY EXPAND TO INCLUDE SOME
FOG AT ALL SITES. PERIODS OF LIFR- IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR PIB/MEI/HBG/HEZ. STILL LOOKING FOR WINDS
TO INCREASE BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 20KTS, ESPECIALLY WEST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY BY EARLY EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 59 76 62 78 / 0 0 10 0
MERIDIAN 56 75 60 76 / 0 0 10 0
VICKSBURG 59 77 63 78 / 0 0 10 0
HATTIESBURG 57 78 62 80 / 0 0 10 0
NATCHEZ 61 78 64 79 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 62 75 62 75 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 61 74 62 76 / 0 0 10 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MSZ051-052-054>066-
072>074.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST FRIDAY FOR LAZ024-026.
AR...NONE.
/
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