193
FXUS64 KJAN 271824 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1224 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY, WITH COLDEST
CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS HAVE
BEEN EXPERIENCING LOW CLOUDS, THE AREAS OF FOG HAVE BEEN DENSE IN
SPOTS THOUGH SOMEWHAT INTERMITTENT. THE CLOUD DECK MAY PERSIST
WELL INTO TODAY BEFORE MORE BREAKS DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ONE MORE ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS IS LIKELY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS MOIST FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
THERE COULD ALSO BE TRANSIENT FOG ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW
CLOUDS, BUT WITH INCREASING WIND OVERNIGHT, IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PERSIST IN MOST AREAS. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOUTH MS
WHERE ADVECTION FOG COULD SPREAD IN FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
DAYBREAK. SCATTERED WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY, BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
SUNSET. SUNDAY EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN ADVANCING INTO
THE AREA BRINGING A STRONGLY FORCED BUT MOSTLY NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY ALONG THE LINE, EVEN THOUGH THERE MAY
BE LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE FRONT, BUT OVERALL STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF EARLY MONDAY, IT WILL BE BLUSTERY
AND INCREASINGLY COLD. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. BUT WIND WILL SLACK OFF AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHICH
MIGHT BE THE COLDEST MORNING AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER 20S POSSIBLE, THOUGH APPARENT TEMPS WON'T BE AS EXTREME DUE
TO THE LIGHTER WIND.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS ON TAP AS WE RING IN 2026, THOUGH NOT AS
COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. AND WE'LL SEE TEMPS BEGIN TO REBOUND ON
NEW YEARS DAY. CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY RETURN BY
FRIDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION OF THAT NEXT SYSTEM
REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT IN TIME, SO DETAILS MAY CHANGE.
/DL/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2025
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS IS ONGOING BUT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
AREAWIDE BY 27/20-22Z SATURDAY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AROUND 28/06-09Z SUNDAY, WITH MVFR TO IFR STRATUS AND SOME
DROPS TO IFR VSBY/BR AT CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST TAF SITES. LIFR
CEILINGS AND PATCHY DENSE FG CAN'T BE FULLY RULED OUT, WITH
HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR STRATUS VS DENSE FG. THESE FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE 18Z TAF
CYCLE, WHILE SOME IMPROVEMENT (MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS) IS PROBABLE
NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY
AFTER 28/15-17Z SUNDAY (SUSTAINED UP TO 15MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 25
TO 30MPH) AT GLH AND GWO AND A TOUCH LIGHTER AT GWO, HKS, JAN AND
HEZ. THESE GUSTS PERSIST INTO END OF THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 62 78 39 48 / 0 0 80 10
MERIDIAN 59 77 40 51 / 0 0 80 20
VICKSBURG 62 79 38 48 / 0 10 80 10
HATTIESBURG 61 79 45 56 / 0 10 80 20
NATCHEZ 62 80 41 51 / 0 10 80 10
GREENVILLE 64 75 35 42 / 0 10 80 0
GREENWOOD 62 76 35 43 / 0 0 90 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/DC
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