348
FXUS64 KJAN 280854
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
254 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH COLDEST CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
- GUSTY WIND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-40
MPH RANGE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT: BLANKETS OF LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTH AND EAST MS AND AREAS WEST OF THE MS RIVER EARLY THIS
MORNING. THERE IS ALSO MUCH MORE LIMITED COVERAGE OF PATCHY FOG
IN SPOTS. COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY EXPAND FURTHER
THROUGH DAYBREAK. LOOKING AHEAD TO TODAY, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM, AND WARM, MUGGY WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH/EAST MS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT THE PRIMARY RAIN CHANCES WILL COME
ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT ADVANCES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ALONG THE FRONT THERE WILL BE A NARROW
BUT GUSTY BAND OF SHOWERS. THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT SHOULD
BE LIMITED IN SCOPE. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW THE FRONT, BUT OVERALL STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS. THOUGH THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED IMPACTS FROM WIND GUSTS IN THE UPPER DELTA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
GIVEN THIS, WE WILL EXPAND THE LIMITED WIND THREAT TO INCLUDE THE
ENTIRE AREA AND SHIFT THE TIMING FOCUS INTO TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF VERY EARLY MONDAY, IT WILL
BE BLUSTERY AND INCREASINGLY COLD. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER, WIND WILL
SLACK OFF AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHICH MIGHT BE THE COLDEST MORNING
AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S POSSIBLE, THOUGH
APPARENT TEMPS WON'T BE AS EXTREME DUE TO THE LIGHTER WIND.
REVELERS CAN EXPECT A COLD NIGHT FOR NEW YEARS EVE FESTIVITIES,
THOUGH THANKFULLY NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WE'LL SEE TEMPS
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON NEW YEARS DAY. CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY
RETURN LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH THAT SYSTEM, BUT THE CURRENT TIMING DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR
ANY SEVERE THREAT. /DL/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
IFR CIGS WERE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY DEVELOPING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CNTRL TAF SITES WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WERE NOTED
ELSEWHERE. MVFR/IFR CIGS WL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PREVAIL
THROUGH 14Z BEFORE IMPROVING. VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH A GUSTY
SOUTH WIND AROUND 20KTS IS EXPECTED BY 16Z. THE GUSTY WIND WILL
SUBSIDE BY 00Z MON. ISOLATED -SHRA MAY COME IN VCTY OF THE SE TAF
SITES THIS AFTN AND THEN GLH BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 78 39 48 27 / 0 80 10 0
MERIDIAN 77 40 51 25 / 0 80 10 0
VICKSBURG 79 38 48 28 / 0 80 0 0
HATTIESBURG 80 46 55 28 / 20 70 10 0
NATCHEZ 80 41 51 28 / 10 80 0 0
GREENVILLE 76 35 42 26 / 0 70 0 0
GREENWOOD 77 34 43 24 / 0 80 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/22
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