475
FXUS64 KJAN 281810 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1210 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH COLDEST CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
- GUSTY WIND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 30-40
MPH RANGE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT: BLANKETS OF LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTH AND EAST MS AND AREAS WEST OF THE MS RIVER EARLY THIS
MORNING. THERE IS ALSO MUCH MORE LIMITED COVERAGE OF PATCHY FOG
IN SPOTS. COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY EXPAND FURTHER
THROUGH DAYBREAK. LOOKING AHEAD TO TODAY, CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM, AND WARM, MUGGY WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. SCATTERED WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH/EAST MS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT THE PRIMARY RAIN CHANCES WILL COME
ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT ADVANCES ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ALONG THE FRONT THERE WILL BE A NARROW
BUT GUSTY BAND OF SHOWERS. THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT SHOULD
BE LIMITED IN SCOPE. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW THE FRONT, BUT OVERALL STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH AT MOST LOCATIONS. THOUGH THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LIMITED IMPACTS FROM WIND GUSTS IN THE UPPER DELTA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, STRONGER WIND GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
GIVEN THIS, WE WILL EXPAND THE LIMITED WIND THREAT TO INCLUDE THE
ENTIRE AREA AND SHIFT THE TIMING FOCUS INTO TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL MOVE IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF VERY EARLY MONDAY, IT WILL
BE BLUSTERY AND INCREASINGLY COLD. WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
IT WILL REMAIN COLD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER, WIND WILL
SLACK OFF AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WHICH MIGHT BE THE COLDEST MORNING
AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S POSSIBLE, THOUGH
APPARENT TEMPS WON'T BE AS EXTREME DUE TO THE LIGHTER WIND.
REVELERS CAN EXPECT A COLD NIGHT FOR NEW YEARS EVE FESTIVITIES,
THOUGH THANKFULLY NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WE'LL SEE TEMPS
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON NEW YEARS DAY. CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY
RETURN LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH THAT SYSTEM, BUT THE CURRENT TIMING DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR
ANY SEVERE THREAT. /DL/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
VFR CEILINGS MOSTLY PREVAIL, BUT SPORADIC DROPS TO MVFR CAN'T BE
RULED OUT AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN, WITH
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35MPH POSSIBLE AT GLH AND UP TO 20
TO 25MPH AT SITES ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM HEZ TO JAN/HKS TO
GTR. A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH SOME SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST AT GLH AROUND 29/02Z MONDAY AND PROPAGATE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH AROUND 29/08-12Z MONDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE (LLWS OF 30KTS AT 2KFT AT TIMES). SOME GUSTS
COULD EXCEED 40MPH AT TIMES THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY FOR NORTHWEST
TAF SITES OF GLH, GWO AND HEZ, WHILE UP TO 30 TO 35MPH ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THE END OF THE 18Z TAF CYCLE. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 78 38 47 26 / 0 80 0 0
MERIDIAN 77 40 50 25 / 0 80 10 0
VICKSBURG 79 39 48 27 / 0 80 0 0
HATTIESBURG 80 45 55 29 / 20 70 10 0
NATCHEZ 80 41 50 28 / 10 80 0 0
GREENVILLE 76 35 42 25 / 0 60 0 0
GREENWOOD 77 34 43 24 / 0 80 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-040>042-047.
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
ARZ074-075.
DL/DC
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