820
FXUS64 KJAN 291724 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1124 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COLDER TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. COLDEST
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
- STRONG GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SUBSIDE BY EARLY
EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT: LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD THE STRONG COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OF OUR SOUTHEAST MOST ZONES. STRONG GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND OF 30-40MPH WAS BEING OBSERVED IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR OUR DELTA REGION WILL BE CANCELLED
BUT GUSTY WINDS OF 30-35MPH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA UNTIL
BECOMING LIGHTER LATER THIS MORNING. LOCAL RADARS SHOWED A NARROW
BAND OF SHOWERS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE FRONT THEN SOME PATCHY LIGHT
ANAFRONTAL RAIN BACK ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL END PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE LARGE 1038MB HIGH
DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BY THIS EVENING AND THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT TOWARD OUR CWA.
ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE IT'S AROUND 20 DEGREES IN OUR SOUTH. DESPITE
LOWER TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA, THE NEW COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE
MET IN THE SOUTH AND NOWHERE ELSE IN OUR CWA. THUS, OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES WILL BE IN A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. AFTER RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE SET SUNDAY, TODAY WILL
FEEL BRISK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 40S AND WIND CHILL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. /22/
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK MONDAY...
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE QUIET AND DRY
THANKS TO SFC RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA HEADING INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/TUESDAY EVENING. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY
CLEAR ACROSS OUR FORECAST FOR TUESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING
IN THE LOW/MID 40S. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 20S.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT THANKS
TO SFC RIDGING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
BY THE LATE WEEK, WITH HIGHS RANGING MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
REVELERS CAN EXPECT A COLD NIGHT FOR NEW YEARS EVE FESTIVITIES,
THOUGH THANKFULLY NOT AS COLD AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS. WE'LL SEE TEMPS
BEGIN TO REBOUND ON NEW YEARS DAY. CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING WILL
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT A FEW SHOWERS MAY
RETURN LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THAT
SYSTEM, BUT THE CURRENT TIMING DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR ANY SEVERE
THREAT. HEADING INTO SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES TO FINISH OFF THE
WEEKEND. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK
WEEK. /CR/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
TIGHT GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT IS LEADING TO STRONG
SURFACE WIND TODAY (SUSTAINED AROUND 15 TO 20MPH AND GUSTS AROUND
25 TO 30MPH, BRIEFLY HIGHER AT TIMES). THESE WILL WIND DOWN BY
30/00Z TUESDAY. OTHER THAN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN THE 7 TO
10KFT RANGE, VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z
TAF CYCLE. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 46 26 44 26 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 48 25 45 25 / 10 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 47 27 45 27 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 53 28 50 27 / 10 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 49 27 46 27 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 42 26 41 29 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 42 23 42 27 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
MSZ060>066-072>074.
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LAZ026.
AR...NONE.
22/CR/DC
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