322
FXUS64 KJAN 181920
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
120 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE GENERAL RULE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.
- MILDER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: A BROAD POLAR TROUGH ANCHORED OVER
EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP OUR CWA LOCKED INTO A COLD AND DRY PATTERN
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REINFORCE BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER OR PRECIP
CHANCES. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY ADDING A WIND
CHILL AT TIMES, HOWEVER WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND: MIDWEEK WILL BRING A SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN AS POLAR FLOW LIFTS NORTH, ALLOWING WARM AIR TO ADVECT INTO
THE REGION. THIS TRANSITION WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK TO THE
FORECAST ALONG WITH A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE
DECENT WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. BY THE WEEKEND, MODEL CONSENSUS DECREASES AS MODELS
VARY ON TIMING OF A STRONG 1045 MB POLAR HIGH SURGING SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA THROUGH THE MIDWEST. WHEN THE POLAR AIR DOES MAKE ITS WAY TO
OUR AREA ZONAL FLOW WILL HELP SET UP A DISTINCT BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE AREA, HELPING TO MAINTAIN A ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
FORECAST REFINEMENTS ARE LIKELY AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK./KP/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM A NORTHWESTERLY OR WESTERLY DIRECTION
WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 KTS. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 26 52 26 52 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 25 52 23 50 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 27 52 26 53 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 28 57 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 27 56 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 27 44 24 48 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 25 46 23 50 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
KP/NF
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