170
FXUS64 KJAN 041255 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
655 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS END THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR IN ITS WAKE.
- QUIET CONDITIONS ENSUE LATE THIS MORNING, CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
THE LAST OF THE RAIN FROM OVERNIGHT IS CLEARING FAR SOUTHERN EDGES
OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. UPDATED NEAR-TERM WEATHER ELEMENTS
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LATEST GUIDANCE, BUT OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. ONE MORE NIGHT OF WIDESPREAD
TEMPS BELOW FREEZING IS STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT. /NF/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SWING EAST THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT,
FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING.
WHILE MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT THE CWA BY SUNRISE, SOME
LINGERING ACTIVITY CAN'T BE RULED OUT AN HOUR TWO AFTERWARDS. CLOUDS
WILL BE A BIT SLOWER TO EXIT, AS MUCH OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY. OTHERWISE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL SETUP BRINGING COLDER DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION. HIGHS
TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS THURSDAY
MORNING GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE 20S.
ANOTHER CHILLY, BUT QUIET, DAY WILL EXIST ON THURSDAY. NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL SETUP ACROSS THE REGION, BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL
STEADILY BECOME MORE WEST AND SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS WILL AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. HOWEVER
WITH THE ONSET OF THE SOUTHWEST WINDS, LOWS THURSDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THEY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...THE MIDDLE AND EXTENDED PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN RATHER QUIET. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
TIME WILL MODERATE UP TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS
EAST INTO AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE LATE WEEKEND/
EARLY NEXT WEEK TIMEFRAME. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, OTHER THAN SOME INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, NO RAIN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY IT. AT THE
MOMENT, THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
COMES IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD ON
TUESDAY, AS MOISTURE INCREASES UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT MOVING EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. /19/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
LOW STRATUS WAS PRODUCING A MIX OF IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS MAINLY
EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 TO START THE TAF PERIOD. ADDITIONAL MVFR
DECK COULD MOVE SOUTH ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 15Z,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING IMPACTS WAS NOT GREAT. RAIN HAS MOVED
SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES TO START THE PERIOD. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 46 26 48 34 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 49 25 49 30 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 49 26 49 35 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 56 30 52 33 / 30 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 50 28 52 36 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 45 25 47 35 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 44 23 46 33 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19/19/NF
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