695
FXUS64 KJAN 061646 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1046 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES GENERALLY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1046 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
REST OF TODAY...
A QUIET AFTERNOON IS ON TAP ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION.
RAP/WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS INDICATE THE AREA ENCAPSULATED IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, IN BETWEEN LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
WHILE DEEP RIDGING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, FOUR CORNERS TO
WEST TX. DRY FRONT IS SITUATED OFF TO THE NORTH, WITH ONLY AROUND
HALF INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWS) ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
SUNNY SKIES PRIOR TO A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WESTERLY SURFACE
WINDS SHIFTING NORTHERLY INTO THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
A LARGE SPREAD, NEARLY 30 TO 40 DEGREES F, WHICH IS PRETTY RARE IN
CLIMATOLOGY SENSE (LESS THAN 2 PERCENT OF ALL OBSERVATIONS AT
JAN AND AROUND THE SAME PERCENTAGE FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY).
MORNING LOWS WILL WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH SEASONABLY WARM HIGHS (10F TO 18F ABOVE) TOPPING OUT
IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S (66F TO 70F IN NORTHEAST WHILE 71F TO
76F IN CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST). UPDATES WERE SENT OUT EARLIER. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...QUIET WEATHER WILL OVERALL REMAIN THE
NORM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE UP TO EVENTUAL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS EAST INTO AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE REGION
DURING THE LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK TIMEFRAME. BEFORE THAT, A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, OTHER THAN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION, NO RAIN IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO ACCOMPANY IT.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA COMES IN THE
FORM OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DURING THIS TIME, A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING THESE CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG WITH
IT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, A RETURN
TO QUIET CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK TO NEAR AND JUST ABOVE SEASONAL READINGS.
/19/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TURNING OUT OF THE NORTH
LATER IN THE PERIOD. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 70 37 57 35 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 70 35 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 72 37 57 36 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 72 38 62 35 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 74 40 61 39 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 70 35 51 34 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 69 34 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/19/NF
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