269
FXUS64 KJAN 230901
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
301 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY.
- WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS RAISE SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS FOR
WILDFIRES AGAIN TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER PINE BELT
REGION.
- COLDER, DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL BELOW FREEZING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
TODAY: 1045MB TO 1050MB SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LOCKING IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND DRY FIRST HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE
COMMA HEAD/SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFF THE NORTHEAST
COASTLINE AND LEADING TO A MAJOR WINTER STORM IN THOSE AREAS.
FURTHER SOUTHWEST, RIDGING EXIST OUT WEST WHILE THE GULF COAST
STATES REMAIN CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THE TWO IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
MUCH DRIER AIR REMAINS LOCKED IN (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS
LOW AS ONE TENTH TO TWO TENTHS). FAVORABLE MIXING AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS (4MB PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 40KT FLOW AT
850MB/15-20KT FLOW AT 925MB) FAVOR SOME GUSTS AT TIMES.
SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER PERSISTS DUE TO FAVORABLE MIXING DOWN OF
SURFACE DEWPOINTS, CRITICALLY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES (20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE) AND CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS. KEPT THE RED FLAG
WARNING CONFIGURATION AND HWO GRAPHIC AS IS. WILDFIRES COULD
SPREAD RAPIDLY AND OPEN BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED IN THESE
AREAS, WHILE OPEN BURNING IS DISCOURAGED TO THE NORTH AS FIRES ARE
MORE LIKELY TO ESCAPE CONTROL. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOLER,
SOME 5F TO 10F BELOW (42F TO 47F NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND 48F TO
55F TO THE SOUTH).
EARLY WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL CONSIST OF SEASONABLY COLD SUBFREEZING TUESDAY
MORNING WELL INTO THE 20S (LOW TO MID 20S). THE GROWING SEASON
HAS YET TO BEGIN IN EARNEST SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FORMAL
MESSAGING, BUT FOLKS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT WINTER IS NOT OVER YET
FOLLOWING A STRING OF HIGHLY ANOMALOUS WARMTH. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER STOUT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SWING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHEAST, DRIVING A FRONT AND THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND SOME STORMS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. RAIN TOTALS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A QUARTER TO JUST OVER THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH. HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE INTO MIDWEEK BEFORE LOWER
IN THE WAKE LATE WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY PREFRONTAL
GRADIENT WINDS AROUND MIDWEEK (WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY).
TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN LIKELY INTO THE START OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. /DC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH GUSTY NNW SURFACE WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TOMORROW IN THE CONTINUED STRONG COLD ADVECTION OVER THE FORECAST
AREA, BUT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME CENTERED
OVER US RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WIND MONDAY NIGHT. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 47 25 60 45 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 48 23 58 41 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 49 27 61 47 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 53 27 62 45 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 52 28 62 48 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 44 26 58 48 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 43 24 58 46 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ059>066-072>074.
LA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ024-026.
AR...NONE.
DC/EC
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