469
FXUS64 KJAN 231740 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1140 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.
- WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS RAISE SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS FOR
WILDFIRES AGAIN TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER PINE BELT
REGION.
- COLDER, DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL BELOW FREEZING.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1003 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS OUR REGION. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A >1038MB
HIGH RIDGING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. TOGETHER THESE
FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR CWA
TODAY. OUR AIRMASS WAS RATHER DRY WITH A PWAT OF 0.10IN PER THE
12Z MON JAN SOUNDING. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO CRITICALLY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND COMBINED WITH THE BREEZY WIND, WILL MAKE
FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
TODAY: 1045MB TO 1050MB SURFACE HIGH IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LOCKING IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND DRY FIRST HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK. RAP UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE
COMMA HEAD/SURFACE CYCLONE RAPIDLY DEEPENING OFF THE NORTHEAST
COASTLINE AND LEADING TO A MAJOR WINTER STORM IN THOSE AREAS.
FURTHER SOUTHWEST, RIDGING EXIST OUT WEST WHILE THE GULF COAST
STATES REMAIN CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THE TWO IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
MUCH DRIER AIR REMAINS LOCKED IN (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS
LOW AS ONE TENTH TO TWO TENTHS). FAVORABLE MIXING AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS (4MB PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 40KT FLOW AT
850MB/15-20KT FLOW AT 925MB) FAVOR SOME GUSTS AT TIMES.
SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER PERSISTS DUE TO FAVORABLE MIXING DOWN OF
SURFACE DEWPOINTS, CRITICALLY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES (20 TO 25
PERCENT RANGE) AND CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS. KEPT THE RED FLAG
WARNING CONFIGURATION AND HWO GRAPHIC AS IS. WILDFIRES COULD
SPREAD RAPIDLY AND OPEN BURNING SHOULD NOT BE ATTEMPTED IN THESE
AREAS, WHILE OPEN BURNING IS DISCOURAGED TO THE NORTH AS FIRES ARE
MORE LIKELY TO ESCAPE CONTROL. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOLER,
SOME 5F TO 10F BELOW (42F TO 47F NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND 48F TO
55F TO THE SOUTH).
EARLY WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE SAGGING SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL CONSIST OF SEASONABLY COLD SUBFREEZING TUESDAY
MORNING WELL INTO THE 20S (LOW TO MID 20S). THE GROWING SEASON
HAS YET TO BEGIN IN EARNEST SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FORMAL
MESSAGING, BUT FOLKS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT WINTER IS NOT OVER YET
FOLLOWING A STRING OF HIGHLY ANOMALOUS WARMTH. DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER STOUT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SWING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHEAST, DRIVING A FRONT AND THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR RAIN AND SOME STORMS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. RAIN TOTALS
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND A QUARTER TO JUST OVER THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH. HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE INTO MIDWEEK BEFORE LOWER
IN THE WAKE LATE WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY PREFRONTAL
GRADIENT WINDS AROUND MIDWEEK (WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY).
TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN LIKELY INTO THE START OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. /DC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
THE GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND AROUND 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SUBSIDE BY 01Z TUE. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 47 25 60 45 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 48 23 57 41 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 49 27 61 47 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 52 28 62 45 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 52 28 62 48 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 44 27 57 48 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 43 25 58 46 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MSZ059>066-
072>074.
LA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAZ024-026.
AR...NONE.
22/DC/22
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page