472
FXUS64 KJAN 240438
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1038 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER IN THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK IS TONIGHT WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
20S.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE ARKLAMISS REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
THROUGH TUESDAY: TONIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK.
THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BECOME
CENTERED OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BY MORNING BEFORE SHIFTING EAST
OF OUR CWA TUESDAY. THIS WILL SET UP STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OF
OUR COOL DRY AIRMASS TONIGHT. MORNING LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
20S AREAWIDE. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY, RETURN
FLOW WILL ENSUE. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO LOWER AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES THAT WILL RAISE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS AGAIN. THE WIND
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TUESDAY THAN TODAY BUT BY AFTERNOON A GUSTY
WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. THIS AREA WILL
HAVE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WHILE IN OUR EAST FIRE DANGER WILL BE
MORE LIMITED. /22/
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY: A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH
SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONT INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION,
RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THURSDAY WITH
50-85% POP CHANCES AREAWIDE. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE WEATHER AS
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED; HOWEVER AN ORGANIZED STORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POST FRONTAL TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP
LINGERING SHOWER CHANCES HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK. /SW/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1032 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 25 60 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 23 57 41 72 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 27 61 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 28 62 45 76 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 28 62 48 74 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 27 57 47 70 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 25 58 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SW/EC
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